Forecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月14日安卡拉最低气温？
9月14日安卡拉最低气温？
12°C或以下 74%
22°C或更高 74%
16°C 39%
17°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
12°C或以下
74%
13°C
23%
14°C
29%
15°C
22%
16°C
39%
17°C
39%
18°C
39%
19°C
39%
20°C
7%
21°C
13%
22°C或更高
74%
12°C或以下 74%
22°C或更高 74%
16°C 39%
17°C 39%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
12°C或以下
$0 交易量
74%
13°C
$0 交易量
23%
14°C
$0 交易量
29%
15°C
$0 交易量
22%
16°C
$20 交易量
39%
17°C
$0 交易量
39%
18°C
$0 交易量
39%
19°C
$0 交易量
39%
20°C
$0 交易量
7%
21°C
$0 交易量
13%
22°C或更高
$0 交易量
74%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-09-14市场开放时间
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETForecast model ensembles show notable spread for Ankara's overnight minimum on September 14, with some runs indicating stronger northwesterly advection and clear skies promoting radiational cooling toward 10–12 °C while others retain more cloud cover or weaker winds limiting the drop to 15–16 °C. Recent observations confirm a sharp cooling trend after September 13 highs near 32 °C, consistent with an approaching trough and shifting pressure gradient that enhances nocturnal heat loss at the elevated Anatolian plateau site. This uncertainty between cooler boundary-layer mixing and potential warmer residual advection underpins the closely matched market-implied probabilities for extremes (≤12 °C or ≥22 °C) versus mid-range outcomes, as traders weigh official guidance from sources like the Turkish State Meteorological Service and ECMWF/GFS consensus against historical September low variability around 14 °C. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of resolution will likely narrow the range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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