Current forecasts for Chengdu on September 25 point to an overnight low near 20–21°C under persistent overcast skies and light rain or drizzle, driven by recent frontal activity and high regional humidity that limits nighttime radiative cooling. Multiple model runs show minimal wind and continued cloud cover suppressing both daytime highs and the diurnal drop, consistent with late-September transitional patterns where averages hover around 19°C lows. Trader-implied odds clustered near the 20–22°C thresholds reflect genuine uncertainty in exact minimum timing and measurement, as small shifts in cloud break timing or local microclimates could alter the recorded low by 1–2°C. Updated runs from official monitoring agencies over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.