Recent forecasts from sources including the Finnish Meteorological Institute and global models indicate September 1 minimum temperatures in Helsinki likely near 9–12 °C, close to the long-term average low of 11.6 °C, amid mild late-August conditions with southwesterly flow and scattered showers. The market’s leading outcome of 8 °C or below (47 % implied probability) captures residual uncertainty from ensemble spread, potential radiational cooling under clearer skies, or a brief northerly advection of cooler air masses over the Baltic, while higher-temperature bins reflect the moderating influence of the sea. Historical climatology shows early-September minima rarely dip below 6 °C, yet model variability and the proximity of resolution keep cooler scenarios priced as the modal outcome. Updated ECMWF and local runs in the next 48 hours will narrow the expected minimum and likely shift probabilities.