Diverging ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS create the tight clustering of 50% implied odds across 13–16°C minima for Istanbul today, reflecting genuine uncertainty in overnight cooling rates. Primary drivers include variable northerly flow off the Black Sea, partial cloud cover suppressing radiative cooling, and the moderating influence of the Bosporus and Sea of Marmara, whose current sea-surface temperatures sit near seasonal norms. Urban heat-island effects in central districts add further variability to official station readings. Historical September minima average near 15°C, but short-term model runs show a 2–3°C spread that will narrow only with updated 00Z and 12Z guidance expected later today. Traders are weighting the latest observational data from Turkish State Meteorological Service stations against these model discrepancies.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月19日伊斯坦布尔的最低温度？
9月19日伊斯坦布尔的最低温度？
13°C或以下 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
14°C <1%
17°C <1%
$2,295 交易量
$2,295 交易量
2026-09-19
13°C或以下
否
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
是
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20℃
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C或更高
否
13°C或以下 1.0%
15°C 1.0%
14°C <1%
17°C <1%
$2,295 交易量
$2,295 交易量
2026-09-19
13°C或以下
$0 交易量
否
14°C
$0 交易量
否
15°C
$0 交易量
否
16°C
$249 交易量
是
17°C
$96 交易量
否
18°C
$244 交易量
否
19°C
$96 交易量
否
20℃
$1,506 交易量
否
21°C
$31 交易量
否
22°C
$37 交易量
否
23°C或更高
$37 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Diverging ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS create the tight clustering of 50% implied odds across 13–16°C minima for Istanbul today, reflecting genuine uncertainty in overnight cooling rates. Primary drivers include variable northerly flow off the Black Sea, partial cloud cover suppressing radiative cooling, and the moderating influence of the Bosporus and Sea of Marmara, whose current sea-surface temperatures sit near seasonal norms. Urban heat-island effects in central districts add further variability to official station readings. Historical September minima average near 15°C, but short-term model runs show a 2–3°C spread that will narrow only with updated 00Z and 12Z guidance expected later today. Traders are weighting the latest observational data from Turkish State Meteorological Service stations against these model discrepancies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$2,295结束日期
2026-09-19市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Diverging ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS create the tight clustering of 50% implied odds across 13–16°C minima for Istanbul today, reflecting genuine uncertainty in overnight cooling rates. Primary drivers include variable northerly flow off the Black Sea, partial cloud cover suppressing radiative cooling, and the moderating influence of the Bosporus and Sea of Marmara, whose current sea-surface temperatures sit near seasonal norms. Urban heat-island effects in central districts add further variability to official station readings. Historical September minima average near 15°C, but short-term model runs show a 2–3°C spread that will narrow only with updated 00Z and 12Z guidance expected later today. Traders are weighting the latest observational data from Turkish State Meteorological Service stations against these model discrepancies.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,295结束日期
2026-09-19市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Diverging ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS create the tight clustering of 50% implied odds across 13–16°C minima for Istanbul today, reflecting genuine uncertainty in overnight cooling rates. Primary drivers include variable northerly flow off the Black Sea, partial cloud cover suppressing radiative cooling, and the moderating influence of the Bosporus and Sea of Marmara, whose current sea-surface temperatures sit near seasonal norms. Urban heat-island effects in central districts add further variability to official station readings. Historical September minima average near 15°C, but short-term model runs show a 2–3°C spread that will narrow only with updated 00Z and 12Z guidance expected later today. Traders are weighting the latest observational data from Turkish State Meteorological Service stations against these model discrepancies.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题