Recent forecast model consensus from sources including AEMET and Met Office points to a minimum around 18–19°C overnight into September 9, driven by northeast winds, partial clearing after early cloud cover and light rain, and seasonal Atlantic high pressure limiting nocturnal cooling. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 19°C outcome at 67.5% implied probability, as models show limited further drop below 18°C under these conditions. Historical September averages near 16.5°C provide context, but current steering patterns and dew points support the market's tighter range around 18–19°C rather than cooler thresholds. Updated runs expected from regional agencies could refine this ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月9日马德里最低气温？
9月9日马德里最低气温？
18°C 40%
16°C 9%
17°C 7%
15°C或以下 1.5%
$2,602 交易量
$2,602 交易量
2026-09-09
15°C或以下
1%
16°C
9%
17°C
7%
18°C
40%
19°C
69%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C或更高
<1%
18°C 40%
16°C 9%
17°C 7%
15°C或以下 1.5%
$2,602 交易量
$2,602 交易量
2026-09-09
15°C或以下
$85 交易量
1%
16°C
$48 交易量
9%
17°C
$26 交易量
7%
18°C
$10 交易量
40%
19°C
$70 交易量
69%
20°C
$174 交易量
<1%
21°C
$444 交易量
<1%
22°C
$68 交易量
<1%
23°C
$86 交易量
<1%
24°C
$276 交易量
<1%
25°C或更高
$1,321 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including AEMET and Met Office points to a minimum around 18–19°C overnight into September 9, driven by northeast winds, partial clearing after early cloud cover and light rain, and seasonal Atlantic high pressure limiting nocturnal cooling. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 19°C outcome at 67.5% implied probability, as models show limited further drop below 18°C under these conditions. Historical September averages near 16.5°C provide context, but current steering patterns and dew points support the market's tighter range around 18–19°C rather than cooler thresholds. Updated runs expected from regional agencies could refine this ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,602结束日期
2026-09-09市场开放时间
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including AEMET and Met Office points to a minimum around 18–19°C overnight into September 9, driven by northeast winds, partial clearing after early cloud cover and light rain, and seasonal Atlantic high pressure limiting nocturnal cooling. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 19°C outcome at 67.5% implied probability, as models show limited further drop below 18°C under these conditions. Historical September averages near 16.5°C provide context, but current steering patterns and dew points support the market's tighter range around 18–19°C rather than cooler thresholds. Updated runs expected from regional agencies could refine this ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,602结束日期
2026-09-09市场开放时间
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent forecast model consensus from sources including AEMET and Met Office points to a minimum around 18–19°C overnight into September 9, driven by northeast winds, partial clearing after early cloud cover and light rain, and seasonal Atlantic high pressure limiting nocturnal cooling. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 19°C outcome at 67.5% implied probability, as models show limited further drop below 18°C under these conditions. Historical September averages near 16.5°C provide context, but current steering patterns and dew points support the market's tighter range around 18–19°C rather than cooler thresholds. Updated runs expected from regional agencies could refine this ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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