**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Paris on September 11, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** Current GFS-based forecasts and observational data indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will drive the daily low to this level, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 12°C and recent September patterns. High pressure and light winds favor efficient heat loss after daytime highs around 24–25°C, with dew points supporting surface temperatures in the low teens Celsius by early morning. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include increased cloud cover or a stronger southerly flow raising the minimum above 14°C, though model agreement remains tight on the current trajectory with limited uncertainty in the final hours of the day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月11日巴黎最低气温？
9月11日巴黎最低气温？
13°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$6,743 交易量
$6,743 交易量
2026-09-11
10°C或以下
否
11°C
否
12°C
否
13°C
是
14°C
否
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C或更高
否
13°C 100.0%
10°C或以下 <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$6,743 交易量
$6,743 交易量
2026-09-11
10°C或以下
$201 交易量
否
11°C
$985 交易量
否
12°C
$1,260 交易量
否
13°C
$1,461 交易量
是
14°C
$1,583 交易量
否
15°C
$268 交易量
否
16°C
$447 交易量
否
17°C
$338 交易量
否
18°C
$95 交易量
否
19°C
$55 交易量
否
20°C或更高
$50 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Paris on September 11, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** Current GFS-based forecasts and observational data indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will drive the daily low to this level, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 12°C and recent September patterns. High pressure and light winds favor efficient heat loss after daytime highs around 24–25°C, with dew points supporting surface temperatures in the low teens Celsius by early morning.
Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include increased cloud cover or a stronger southerly flow raising the minimum above 14°C, though model agreement remains tight on the current trajectory with limited uncertainty in the final hours of the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$6,743结束日期
2026-09-11市场开放时间
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Paris on September 11, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** Current GFS-based forecasts and observational data indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will drive the daily low to this level, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 12°C and recent September patterns. High pressure and light winds favor efficient heat loss after daytime highs around 24–25°C, with dew points supporting surface temperatures in the low teens Celsius by early morning.
Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include increased cloud cover or a stronger southerly flow raising the minimum above 14°C, though model agreement remains tight on the current trajectory with limited uncertainty in the final hours of the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,743结束日期
2026-09-11市场开放时间
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
**Trader consensus strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Paris on September 11, 2026, at 97.5% implied probability.** Current GFS-based forecasts and observational data indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will drive the daily low to this level, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average low near 12°C and recent September patterns. High pressure and light winds favor efficient heat loss after daytime highs around 24–25°C, with dew points supporting surface temperatures in the low teens Celsius by early morning. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include increased cloud cover or a stronger southerly flow raising the minimum above 14°C, though model agreement remains tight on the current trajectory with limited uncertainty in the final hours of the day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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