Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability that President Trump will drop the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before confirming nominee Kevin Warsh, driven by intensifying Senate Republican pressure amid Powell’s May 15 term end. Key GOP senators, including Thom Tillis and Majority Leader John Thune, have conditioned Warsh’s confirmation—slated for hearing next week—on ending the investigation over alleged Fed headquarters cost overruns, citing risks to monetary policy continuity and Fed independence. Trump’s April 15 insistence on proving “incompetence” notwithstanding, the four-week timeline and bipartisan opposition signal traders’ expectation of a pragmatic retreat to secure a dovish policy pivot under Warsh, with Treasury yields stable amid uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-10-31
最新
最新
2026-10-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability that President Trump will drop the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before confirming nominee Kevin Warsh, driven by intensifying Senate Republican pressure amid Powell’s May 15 term end. Key GOP senators, including Thom Tillis and Majority Leader John Thune, have conditioned Warsh’s confirmation—slated for hearing next week—on ending the investigation over alleged Fed headquarters cost overruns, citing risks to monetary policy continuity and Fed independence. Trump’s April 15 insistence on proving “incompetence” notwithstanding, the four-week timeline and bipartisan opposition signal traders’ expectation of a pragmatic retreat to secure a dovish policy pivot under Warsh, with Treasury yields stable amid uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
交易量
$148结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability that President Trump will drop the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before confirming nominee Kevin Warsh, driven by intensifying Senate Republican pressure amid Powell’s May 15 term end. Key GOP senators, including Thom Tillis and Majority Leader John Thune, have conditioned Warsh’s confirmation—slated for hearing next week—on ending the investigation over alleged Fed headquarters cost overruns, citing risks to monetary policy continuity and Fed independence. Trump’s April 15 insistence on proving “incompetence” notwithstanding, the four-week timeline and bipartisan opposition signal traders’ expectation of a pragmatic retreat to secure a dovish policy pivot under Warsh, with Treasury yields stable amid uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters is dropped before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation prior to Warsh’s confirmation, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. federal government. However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$148结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability that President Trump will drop the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell before confirming nominee Kevin Warsh, driven by intensifying Senate Republican pressure amid Powell’s May 15 term end. Key GOP senators, including Thom Tillis and Majority Leader John Thune, have conditioned Warsh’s confirmation—slated for hearing next week—on ending the investigation over alleged Fed headquarters cost overruns, citing risks to monetary policy continuity and Fed independence. Trump’s April 15 insistence on proving “incompetence” notwithstanding, the four-week timeline and bipartisan opposition signal traders’ expectation of a pragmatic retreat to secure a dovish policy pivot under Warsh, with Treasury yields stable amid uncertainty.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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