Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for New York City's Central Park high temperature on March 29, with models implying 50-51°F as the slight favorite amid lingering cool air from a recent frontal boundary. The GFS and European models show ensemble spreads of 47-53°F, driven by variable cloud cover, northerly winds sustaining highs below seasonal norms (historical late-March average ~52°F), and potential for shallow diurnal mixing. Lower probabilities for extremes stem from stable baroclinic zone suppressing records, though minor timing shifts in boundary layer clearing could nudge outcomes. Watch evening NWS updates and 00Z model runs for refined guidance resolving the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in NYC on March 29?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 29?
50-51°F 28%
48-49°F 20%
52-53°F 20%
47°F or below 20%
47°F or below
20%
48-49°F
20%
50-51°F
28%
52-53°F
17%
54-55°F
9%
56-57°F
7%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66°F or higher
1%
50-51°F 28%
48-49°F 20%
52-53°F 20%
47°F or below 20%
47°F or below
20%
48-49°F
20%
50-51°F
28%
52-53°F
17%
54-55°F
9%
56-57°F
7%
58-59°F
4%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts for New York City's Central Park high temperature on March 29, with models implying 50-51°F as the slight favorite amid lingering cool air from a recent frontal boundary. The GFS and European models show ensemble spreads of 47-53°F, driven by variable cloud cover, northerly winds sustaining highs below seasonal norms (historical late-March average ~52°F), and potential for shallow diurnal mixing. Lower probabilities for extremes stem from stable baroclinic zone suppressing records, though minor timing shifts in boundary layer clearing could nudge outcomes. Watch evening NWS updates and 00Z model runs for refined guidance resolving the market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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