Trader consensus on Polymarket centers tightly on 22°C (25.5%), 24°C (23.0%), and 23°C (21.5%) for Beijing's highest temperature on March 29, driven by aligned forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and ECMWF showing daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s under persistent high-pressure influence. Recent observations through March 28 logged highs of 20–22°C amid sunny conditions and light southerly winds, amplifying urban heat island effects in Beijing, while minimal cloud cover risks support the cluster—though patchy stratus could shave 1–2°C, explaining the razor-thin spread. This reflects March 2024's record warmth across northern China from weakened cold outbreaks; daily CMA updates and 12Z model runs ahead of resolution will likely sharpen the edge.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Beijing on March 29?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 29?
22°C 25%
23°C 22%
24°C 21%
21°C 19%
15°C or below
2%
16°C
7%
17°C
5%
18°C
9%
19°C
9%
20°C
11%
21°C
19%
22°C
25%
23°C
22%
24°C
21%
25°C or higher
13%
22°C 25%
23°C 22%
24°C 21%
21°C 19%
15°C or below
2%
16°C
7%
17°C
5%
18°C
9%
19°C
9%
20°C
11%
21°C
19%
22°C
25%
23°C
22%
24°C
21%
25°C or higher
13%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers tightly on 22°C (25.5%), 24°C (23.0%), and 23°C (21.5%) for Beijing's highest temperature on March 29, driven by aligned forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and ECMWF showing daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s under persistent high-pressure influence. Recent observations through March 28 logged highs of 20–22°C amid sunny conditions and light southerly winds, amplifying urban heat island effects in Beijing, while minimal cloud cover risks support the cluster—though patchy stratus could shave 1–2°C, explaining the razor-thin spread. This reflects March 2024's record warmth across northern China from weakened cold outbreaks; daily CMA updates and 12Z model runs ahead of resolution will likely sharpen the edge.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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