Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) project San Francisco's March 29 high temperature in the upper 60s to mid-70s range, with some runs exceeding 76°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over California that could suppress the persistent marine layer from cold Pacific waters. This spread explains the closely matched market-implied odds, where 76°F or higher leads at 25.5%, edged over 68-69°F (21.5%) and 70-71°F (19.5%), as traders weigh solar heating potential against typical coastal moderation—San Francisco's March average high is 63°F, per historical NOAA data. National Weather Service guidance holds steady at 66°F with breezy west winds, but 12z model updates and afternoon observations could sharpen consensus before resolution based on official SFO airport readings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 29?
76°F or higher 42%
68-69°F 22%
70-71°F 21%
72-73°F 20%
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
7%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
11%
66-67°F
11%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
19%
76°F or higher
25%
76°F or higher 42%
68-69°F 22%
70-71°F 21%
72-73°F 20%
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
7%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
11%
66-67°F
11%
68-69°F
22%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
20%
74-75°F
19%
76°F or higher
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) project San Francisco's March 29 high temperature in the upper 60s to mid-70s range, with some runs exceeding 76°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over California that could suppress the persistent marine layer from cold Pacific waters. This spread explains the closely matched market-implied odds, where 76°F or higher leads at 25.5%, edged over 68-69°F (21.5%) and 70-71°F (19.5%), as traders weigh solar heating potential against typical coastal moderation—San Francisco's March average high is 63°F, per historical NOAA data. National Weather Service guidance holds steady at 66°F with breezy west winds, but 12z model updates and afternoon observations could sharpen consensus before resolution based on official SFO airport readings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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