Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Austin's highest temperature on March 29, with NOAA's Global Forecast System and ECMWF models projecting highs clustered in the low-to-upper 80s°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas. This high-pressure system promotes clear skies and downslope warming, enhanced by southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture and heat, potentially pushing peaks toward 86-87°F per recent 12Z runs. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon cloud development—ECMWF drier than GFS—timing of any weak frontal boundary remnants, and urban heat island amplification in Austin. Historical late-March averages hover near 78°F, but climatological analogs to current 500mb patterns support above-normal warmth; watch evening model updates for refined guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Austin on March 29?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 29?
82-83°F 22%
80-81°F 20%
84-85°F 20%
86-87°F 19%
73°F or below
4%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
16%
90-91°F
12%
92°F or higher
12%
82-83°F 22%
80-81°F 20%
84-85°F 20%
86-87°F 19%
73°F or below
4%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
20%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
16%
90-91°F
12%
92°F or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 25, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Austin's highest temperature on March 29, with NOAA's Global Forecast System and ECMWF models projecting highs clustered in the low-to-upper 80s°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas. This high-pressure system promotes clear skies and downslope warming, enhanced by southerly winds advecting Gulf moisture and heat, potentially pushing peaks toward 86-87°F per recent 12Z runs. Differentiating factors include model spread on afternoon cloud development—ECMWF drier than GFS—timing of any weak frontal boundary remnants, and urban heat island amplification in Austin. Historical late-March averages hover near 78°F, but climatological analogs to current 500mb patterns support above-normal warmth; watch evening model updates for refined guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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