Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 84-91°F for Austin's highest temperature on March 27, reflecting National Weather Service guidance projecting a peak near 86°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas that favors advection of warm, moist air from the south. Latest GFS and ECMWF model ensembles from the past 24 hours indicate means of 85-88°F, with spreads arising from uncertainties in afternoon boundary layer heating, cirrus cloud timing, and urban heat island effects amplifying peaks. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph enhance warmth above March climatological averages of 77°F, though any unexpected dryline bulge could shave 2-3°F. Key updates from NOAA's 00z runs expected overnight may sharpen resolution criteria for this time-sensitive market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Austin on March 27?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?
86-87°F 27%
84-85°F 22%
90-91°F 21%
88-89°F 20%
$11,710 Vol.
$11,710 Vol.
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
20%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
2%
94°F or higher
2%
86-87°F 27%
84-85°F 22%
90-91°F 21%
88-89°F 20%
$11,710 Vol.
$11,710 Vol.
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
20%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
2%
94°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 84-91°F for Austin's highest temperature on March 27, reflecting National Weather Service guidance projecting a peak near 86°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas that favors advection of warm, moist air from the south. Latest GFS and ECMWF model ensembles from the past 24 hours indicate means of 85-88°F, with spreads arising from uncertainties in afternoon boundary layer heating, cirrus cloud timing, and urban heat island effects amplifying peaks. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph enhance warmth above March climatological averages of 77°F, though any unexpected dryline bulge could shave 2-3°F. Key updates from NOAA's 00z runs expected overnight may sharpen resolution criteria for this time-sensitive market.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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