**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models point to a high temperature in the mid-80s for New York City on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 84–85°F and 86–87°F bins.** A cold front is expected to move through the region on September 3, shifting winds to the northwest and ushering in drier, cooler air behind it. This setup favors mostly sunny skies and efficient daytime heating without the humidity or cloud cover that suppressed highs earlier in the week. September 4 falls near the long-term average high of ~80°F at Central Park, but recent guidance has trended slightly above normal due to the post-frontal subsidence and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited upside risk from any lingering moisture or downside from unexpected cloud cover. Traders appear to be anchoring on this consensus, pricing the 84–87°F range as the most probable outcome while assigning low probability to extremes above 88°F or below 82°F. Updated model runs and the official NWS forecast discussion on September 3–4 will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in NYC am 4. September?
Höchste Temperatur in NYC am 4. September?
84-85°F 43%
86-87°F 30%
82-83 °F 16%
78-79°F 9%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
73°F oder weniger
1%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
7%
82-83 °F
16%
84-85°F
43%
86-87°F
30%
88-89°F
5%
90-91°F
8%
92°F oder höher
4%
84-85°F 43%
86-87°F 30%
82-83 °F 16%
78-79°F 9%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
73°F oder weniger
$0 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
3%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
8%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
9%
80-81°F
$13 Vol.
7%
82-83 °F
$25 Vol.
16%
84-85°F
$186 Vol.
43%
86-87°F
$110 Vol.
30%
88-89°F
$334 Vol.
5%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
8%
92°F oder höher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models point to a high temperature in the mid-80s for New York City on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 84–85°F and 86–87°F bins.** A cold front is expected to move through the region on September 3, shifting winds to the northwest and ushering in drier, cooler air behind it. This setup favors mostly sunny skies and efficient daytime heating without the humidity or cloud cover that suppressed highs earlier in the week.
September 4 falls near the long-term average high of ~80°F at Central Park, but recent guidance has trended slightly above normal due to the post-frontal subsidence and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited upside risk from any lingering moisture or downside from unexpected cloud cover. Traders appear to be anchoring on this consensus, pricing the 84–87°F range as the most probable outcome while assigning low probability to extremes above 88°F or below 82°F. Updated model runs and the official NWS forecast discussion on September 3–4 will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ET
Volumen
$668Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models point to a high temperature in the mid-80s for New York City on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 84–85°F and 86–87°F bins.** A cold front is expected to move through the region on September 3, shifting winds to the northwest and ushering in drier, cooler air behind it. This setup favors mostly sunny skies and efficient daytime heating without the humidity or cloud cover that suppressed highs earlier in the week.
September 4 falls near the long-term average high of ~80°F at Central Park, but recent guidance has trended slightly above normal due to the post-frontal subsidence and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited upside risk from any lingering moisture or downside from unexpected cloud cover. Traders appear to be anchoring on this consensus, pricing the 84–87°F range as the most probable outcome while assigning low probability to extremes above 88°F or below 82°F. Updated model runs and the official NWS forecast discussion on September 3–4 will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$668Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:55 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and major models point to a high temperature in the mid-80s for New York City on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on the 84–85°F and 86–87°F bins.** A cold front is expected to move through the region on September 3, shifting winds to the northwest and ushering in drier, cooler air behind it. This setup favors mostly sunny skies and efficient daytime heating without the humidity or cloud cover that suppressed highs earlier in the week. September 4 falls near the long-term average high of ~80°F at Central Park, but recent guidance has trended slightly above normal due to the post-frontal subsidence and light winds. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with limited upside risk from any lingering moisture or downside from unexpected cloud cover. Traders appear to be anchoring on this consensus, pricing the 84–87°F range as the most probable outcome while assigning low probability to extremes above 88°F or below 82°F. Updated model runs and the official NWS forecast discussion on September 3–4 will be the key near-term catalysts for any shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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