The incoming low-pressure system from the Bay of Bengal, forecast to deliver scattered thunderstorms and rain to Karachi on September 14, stands as the dominant driver of market odds. This monsoon remnant introduces variability in overnight cloud cover, humidity, and precipitation timing, which directly influences radiative cooling and the daily minimum. Recent model guidance shows nighttime lows clustered near 27–28°C under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions, yet divergence in storm timing and intensity supports the near-even split between sub-23°C and 33°C+ outcomes. Coastal sea surface temperatures near 29°C and persistently high humidity further limit sharp drops, while any clearer gaps could allow greater cooling toward seasonal norms around 26°C. Updated Pakistan Meteorological Department runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely resolve much of the current trader uncertainty.