Trader sentiment favors 82-83°F (30.5% implied probability) for Denver's highest temperature on March 26, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating a potent upper-level ridge over the Rockies, enhancing downslope chinook winds for adiabatic warming. High uncertainty across the distribution arises from model discrepancies in ridge strength and timing—GFS leans slightly warmer near 81°F, while Euro outliers reach 87°F or cool to 74°F with added cloud cover or frontal encroachment. Key variables include morning low-level moisture suppressing early highs, surface pressure gradients driving wind speeds above 20 mph, and jet stream positioning; NOAA's Denver airport observations will resolve, against a March climatology averaging 57°F highs but with 80°F+ precedents during similar setups. Next 12z runs may sharpen odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Denver on March 26?
Highest temperature in Denver on March 26?
82-83°F 31%
80-81°F 18%
78-79°F 17%
76-77°F 13%
71°F or below
3%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
2%
82-83°F 31%
80-81°F 18%
78-79°F 17%
76-77°F 13%
71°F or below
3%
72-73°F
9%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
13%
78-79°F
17%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
5%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckly Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors 82-83°F (30.5% implied probability) for Denver's highest temperature on March 26, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating a potent upper-level ridge over the Rockies, enhancing downslope chinook winds for adiabatic warming. High uncertainty across the distribution arises from model discrepancies in ridge strength and timing—GFS leans slightly warmer near 81°F, while Euro outliers reach 87°F or cool to 74°F with added cloud cover or frontal encroachment. Key variables include morning low-level moisture suppressing early highs, surface pressure gradients driving wind speeds above 20 mph, and jet stream positioning; NOAA's Denver airport observations will resolve, against a March climatology averaging 57°F highs but with 80°F+ precedents during similar setups. Next 12z runs may sharpen odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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