The closely matched implied probabilities for 13°C (35.5%) and 12°C (33.5%) highs in Istanbul on April 17 reflect short-range forecast uncertainty captured by ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads, projecting maximum temperatures of 12-14°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Cooler-than-average readings—below the mid-April climatological norm of 17°C per historical data from official stations—stem from persistent cloud cover reducing solar insolation and modest northerly temperature advection, though urban heat island effects in central Istanbul could nudge peaks higher. Model disagreements on boundary layer development and afternoon clearing differentiate outcomes; traders await Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and 00Z runs for refinement, with resolution based on verified airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
13°C 36%
12°C 34%
14°C 21%
11°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 abr 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
4%
11°C
10%
12°C
34%
13°C
36%
14°C
21%
15°C
4%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 36%
12°C 34%
14°C 21%
11°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 abr 2026
8°C or below
$1,165 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,326 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$948 Vol.
4%
11°C
$1,041 Vol.
10%
12°C
$298 Vol.
34%
13°C
$364 Vol.
36%
14°C
$276 Vol.
21%
15°C
$728 Vol.
4%
16°C
$697 Vol.
1%
17°C
$1,047 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$1,209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched implied probabilities for 13°C (35.5%) and 12°C (33.5%) highs in Istanbul on April 17 reflect short-range forecast uncertainty captured by ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads, projecting maximum temperatures of 12-14°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Cooler-than-average readings—below the mid-April climatological norm of 17°C per historical data from official stations—stem from persistent cloud cover reducing solar insolation and modest northerly temperature advection, though urban heat island effects in central Istanbul could nudge peaks higher. Model disagreements on boundary layer development and afternoon clearing differentiate outcomes; traders await Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and 00Z runs for refinement, with resolution based on verified airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volumen
$9,100Fecha de finalización
17 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched implied probabilities for 13°C (35.5%) and 12°C (33.5%) highs in Istanbul on April 17 reflect short-range forecast uncertainty captured by ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads, projecting maximum temperatures of 12-14°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Cooler-than-average readings—below the mid-April climatological norm of 17°C per historical data from official stations—stem from persistent cloud cover reducing solar insolation and modest northerly temperature advection, though urban heat island effects in central Istanbul could nudge peaks higher. Model disagreements on boundary layer development and afternoon clearing differentiate outcomes; traders await Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and 00Z runs for refinement, with resolution based on verified airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$9,100Fecha de finalización
17 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched implied probabilities for 13°C (35.5%) and 12°C (33.5%) highs in Istanbul on April 17 reflect short-range forecast uncertainty captured by ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads, projecting maximum temperatures of 12-14°C under partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Cooler-than-average readings—below the mid-April climatological norm of 17°C per historical data from official stations—stem from persistent cloud cover reducing solar insolation and modest northerly temperature advection, though urban heat island effects in central Istanbul could nudge peaks higher. Model disagreements on boundary layer development and afternoon clearing differentiate outcomes; traders await Turkish State Meteorological Service updates and 00Z runs for refinement, with resolution based on verified airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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