Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Istanbul's August 19 maximum temperature likely peaking near 27–28°C due to persistent northerly flow, moderate Black Sea surface temperatures around 24°C, and limited daytime heating under partial cloud cover. The near-even split in market-implied odds between these two outcomes captures remaining uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects along the Bosphorus. Historical mid-August climatology centers near 29°C, yet current synoptic patterns favor values at the lower end of the distribution. Next high-resolution model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected within 24 hours will provide the key updates traders are monitoring for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 19 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Estambul el 19 de agosto?
27°C 34%
28°C 33%
29°C 14%
26°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 ago 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
13%
27°C
34%
28°C
33%
29°C
14%
30°C
6%
31°C
3%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 34%
28°C 33%
29°C 14%
26°C 13%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 ago 2026
23°C or below
$28 Vol.
1%
24°C
$110 Vol.
2%
25°C
$14 Vol.
3%
26°C
$87 Vol.
13%
27°C
$1,290 Vol.
34%
28°C
$292 Vol.
33%
29°C
$87 Vol.
14%
30°C
$21 Vol.
6%
31°C
$10 Vol.
3%
32°C
$17 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$16 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Istanbul's August 19 maximum temperature likely peaking near 27–28°C due to persistent northerly flow, moderate Black Sea surface temperatures around 24°C, and limited daytime heating under partial cloud cover. The near-even split in market-implied odds between these two outcomes captures remaining uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects along the Bosphorus. Historical mid-August climatology centers near 29°C, yet current synoptic patterns favor values at the lower end of the distribution. Next high-resolution model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected within 24 hours will provide the key updates traders are monitoring for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$1,971Fecha de finalización
19 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Istanbul's August 19 maximum temperature likely peaking near 27–28°C due to persistent northerly flow, moderate Black Sea surface temperatures around 24°C, and limited daytime heating under partial cloud cover. The near-even split in market-implied odds between these two outcomes captures remaining uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects along the Bosphorus. Historical mid-August climatology centers near 29°C, yet current synoptic patterns favor values at the lower end of the distribution. Next high-resolution model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected within 24 hours will provide the key updates traders are monitoring for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,971Fecha de finalización
19 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show Istanbul's August 19 maximum temperature likely peaking near 27–28°C due to persistent northerly flow, moderate Black Sea surface temperatures around 24°C, and limited daytime heating under partial cloud cover. The near-even split in market-implied odds between these two outcomes captures remaining uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and urban heat-island effects along the Bosphorus. Historical mid-August climatology centers near 29°C, yet current synoptic patterns favor values at the lower end of the distribution. Next high-resolution model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected within 24 hours will provide the key updates traders are monitoring for resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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