The southwest monsoon (Habagat) and associated cloud cover plus scattered thunderstorms represent the dominant near-term driver, with PAGASA's latest outlook projecting a 24–31 °C range and 60 % rain probability for Metro Manila on 19 August. These conditions typically suppress peak daytime heating by limiting solar insolation, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below the long-term August mean of ~30 °C. Recent model consensus and observed maxima of 29–32 °C over the prior week reinforce trader preference for 28–29 °C outcomes (combined ~60 % implied probability), while the modest 17.5 % chance assigned to 30 °C reflects residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 19 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 19 de agosto?
29°C 36%
28°C 25%
30°C 18%
27°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 ago 2026
22°C o menos
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
5%
27°C
10%
28°C
25%
29°C
36%
30°C
18%
31°C
5%
32°C o más
3%
29°C 36%
28°C 25%
30°C 18%
27°C 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 ago 2026
22°C o menos
$186 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$186 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$196 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$259 Vol.
2%
26°C
$85 Vol.
5%
27°C
$272 Vol.
10%
28°C
$1,154 Vol.
25%
29°C
$230 Vol.
36%
30°C
$310 Vol.
18%
31°C
$228 Vol.
5%
32°C o más
$65 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (Habagat) and associated cloud cover plus scattered thunderstorms represent the dominant near-term driver, with PAGASA's latest outlook projecting a 24–31 °C range and 60 % rain probability for Metro Manila on 19 August. These conditions typically suppress peak daytime heating by limiting solar insolation, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below the long-term August mean of ~30 °C. Recent model consensus and observed maxima of 29–32 °C over the prior week reinforce trader preference for 28–29 °C outcomes (combined ~60 % implied probability), while the modest 17.5 % chance assigned to 30 °C reflects residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volumen
$3,172Fecha de finalización
19 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The southwest monsoon (Habagat) and associated cloud cover plus scattered thunderstorms represent the dominant near-term driver, with PAGASA's latest outlook projecting a 24–31 °C range and 60 % rain probability for Metro Manila on 19 August. These conditions typically suppress peak daytime heating by limiting solar insolation, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below the long-term August mean of ~30 °C. Recent model consensus and observed maxima of 29–32 °C over the prior week reinforce trader preference for 28–29 °C outcomes (combined ~60 % implied probability), while the modest 17.5 % chance assigned to 30 °C reflects residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,172Fecha de finalización
19 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The southwest monsoon (Habagat) and associated cloud cover plus scattered thunderstorms represent the dominant near-term driver, with PAGASA's latest outlook projecting a 24–31 °C range and 60 % rain probability for Metro Manila on 19 August. These conditions typically suppress peak daytime heating by limiting solar insolation, keeping maximum temperatures near or slightly below the long-term August mean of ~30 °C. Recent model consensus and observed maxima of 29–32 °C over the prior week reinforce trader preference for 28–29 °C outcomes (combined ~60 % implied probability), while the modest 17.5 % chance assigned to 30 °C reflects residual uncertainty in exact rainfall timing and intensity. Updated PAGASA and global model guidance issued in the next 24–48 hours will be the key catalyst for any further shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes