Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and ICON models, updated within the past 24 hours, drive trader consensus toward a 6°C high in Munich on March 26, with 31% implied probability, as cool northerly airflow dominates over Central Europe amid a blocking high-pressure ridge. This edges out 5°C (22.5%) and 7°C (19.5%) due to tight model spread: fuller cloud cover from an approaching Atlantic front favors the lower end, while brief clear spells could push toward 7°C via enhanced solar insolation at Munich's low March sun angle. Historical late-March highs average 11°C, but this anomalously cool air mass—verified by DWD soundings—narrows outcomes, with urban heat island effects at the official station minimally differentiating the cluster. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z runs for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Munich on March 26?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 26?
6°C 31%
5°C 23%
7°C 20%
4°C 12%
-1°C or below
<1%
0°C
1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
1%
3°C
2%
4°C
12%
5°C
23%
6°C
31%
7°C
20%
8°C
7%
9°C or higher
2%
6°C 31%
5°C 23%
7°C 20%
4°C 12%
-1°C or below
<1%
0°C
1%
1°C
<1%
2°C
1%
3°C
2%
4°C
12%
5°C
23%
6°C
31%
7°C
20%
8°C
7%
9°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and ICON models, updated within the past 24 hours, drive trader consensus toward a 6°C high in Munich on March 26, with 31% implied probability, as cool northerly airflow dominates over Central Europe amid a blocking high-pressure ridge. This edges out 5°C (22.5%) and 7°C (19.5%) due to tight model spread: fuller cloud cover from an approaching Atlantic front favors the lower end, while brief clear spells could push toward 7°C via enhanced solar insolation at Munich's low March sun angle. Historical late-March highs average 11°C, but this anomalously cool air mass—verified by DWD soundings—narrows outcomes, with urban heat island effects at the official station minimally differentiating the cluster. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z runs for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes