Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 64.5% probability of San Francisco reaching 78°F or higher on April 4, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus showing a persistent upper-level high pressure ridge over California. This ridge promotes subsidence warming and clear skies, limiting the typical marine layer's cooling influence from the Pacific, with light offshore winds aiding burn-off of coastal stratus. Following the Bay Area's record hottest March on record, recent observational data from April 2-3 confirms above-normal highs in the low 70s, building momentum for upper-70s peaks downtown. Uncertainty persists in exact fog dissipation timing; watch NWS evening updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution using official downtown San Francisco measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on April 4?
78°F or higher 78%
76-77°F 15%
74-75°F 4.7%
72-73°F 3.0%
$18,564 Vol.
$18,564 Vol.
4 abr 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
15%
78°F or higher
78%
78°F or higher 78%
76-77°F 15%
74-75°F 4.7%
72-73°F 3.0%
$18,564 Vol.
$18,564 Vol.
4 abr 2026
59°F or below
$2,464 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$1,318 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$1,457 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$777 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$758 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$2,425 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$2,544 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$1,416 Vol.
3%
74-75°F
$1,872 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$1,522 Vol.
15%
78°F or higher
$2,013 Vol.
78%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 64.5% probability of San Francisco reaching 78°F or higher on April 4, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus showing a persistent upper-level high pressure ridge over California. This ridge promotes subsidence warming and clear skies, limiting the typical marine layer's cooling influence from the Pacific, with light offshore winds aiding burn-off of coastal stratus. Following the Bay Area's record hottest March on record, recent observational data from April 2-3 confirms above-normal highs in the low 70s, building momentum for upper-70s peaks downtown. Uncertainty persists in exact fog dissipation timing; watch NWS evening updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution using official downtown San Francisco measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 29, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volumen
$18,564Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:44 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 64.5% probability of San Francisco reaching 78°F or higher on April 4, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus showing a persistent upper-level high pressure ridge over California. This ridge promotes subsidence warming and clear skies, limiting the typical marine layer's cooling influence from the Pacific, with light offshore winds aiding burn-off of coastal stratus. Following the Bay Area's record hottest March on record, recent observational data from April 2-3 confirms above-normal highs in the low 70s, building momentum for upper-70s peaks downtown. Uncertainty persists in exact fog dissipation timing; watch NWS evening updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution using official downtown San Francisco measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$18,564Fecha de finalización
4 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 29, 2026, 2:44 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 64.5% probability of San Francisco reaching 78°F or higher on April 4, driven by the latest National Weather Service forecasts and model consensus showing a persistent upper-level high pressure ridge over California. This ridge promotes subsidence warming and clear skies, limiting the typical marine layer's cooling influence from the Pacific, with light offshore winds aiding burn-off of coastal stratus. Following the Bay Area's record hottest March on record, recent observational data from April 2-3 confirms above-normal highs in the low 70s, building momentum for upper-70s peaks downtown. Uncertainty persists in exact fog dissipation timing; watch NWS evening updates for refined guidance ahead of resolution using official downtown San Francisco measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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