**Trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 6 maximum temperature centers on the narrow 24–25 °C band (combined ~61 % implied probability) because the latest official and model guidance places the expected high squarely in that range.** After a cold front suppressed readings to the 18–19 °C zone on July 4, high pressure and subsidence are allowing gradual warming. INMET and major global models (ECMWF, GFS) currently converge on afternoon temperatures of 24–25 °C under partly cloudy skies and light winds, which limit both excessive heating and excessive mixing. Climatologically, early-July highs in São Paulo average 21–22 °C, so the current setup sits slightly above normal but well below the upper tail of the distribution. Key variables that could shift the outcome by one degree include the precise amount of low-level moisture and any thin afternoon cloud deck, both of which reduce insolation and surface warming. With resolution less than 24 hours away, the next INMET update and the 00 UTC model runs will be the decisive inputs traders monitor.