Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre models, updated this morning, drive trader consensus toward highs of 50-53°F in Seattle on March 23, with 50-51°F edging out at 28.5% implied probability over 52-53°F at 27%. Differentiating these bins are subtle variations in predicted diurnal heating and marine stratus clearance; GFS ensembles favor slightly cooler outcomes under persistent low clouds from Pacific moisture, while ECMWF hints at afternoon breaks allowing 1-2°F warmer peaks. Historical March 23 highs at Sea-Tac average 54°F but skew lower amid La Niña transitions, amplifying model spread amid weak ridging aloft. Traders eye 2 p.m. PDT updates for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Seattle el 23 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Seattle el 23 de marzo?
50-51°F 29%
52-53°F 27%
54-55°F 13%
48-49°F 10%
41°F o menos
1%
42-43°F
5%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
10%
50-51°F
29%
52-53°F
27%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
3%
60°F o más
1%
50-51°F 29%
52-53°F 27%
54-55°F 13%
48-49°F 10%
41°F o menos
1%
42-43°F
5%
44-45°F
8%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
10%
50-51°F
29%
52-53°F
27%
54-55°F
13%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
3%
60°F o más
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's Global Forecast System and European Centre models, updated this morning, drive trader consensus toward highs of 50-53°F in Seattle on March 23, with 50-51°F edging out at 28.5% implied probability over 52-53°F at 27%. Differentiating these bins are subtle variations in predicted diurnal heating and marine stratus clearance; GFS ensembles favor slightly cooler outcomes under persistent low clouds from Pacific moisture, while ECMWF hints at afternoon breaks allowing 1-2°F warmer peaks. Historical March 23 highs at Sea-Tac average 54°F but skew lower amid La Niña transitions, amplifying model spread amid weak ridging aloft. Traders eye 2 p.m. PDT updates for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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