Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 12–14°C outcomes at 23.5%, 21%, and 18% implied probabilities, reflecting Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts showing April 5 highs of 13°C at Incheon International Airport and 16°C at Gimpo amid a sharp cool-down from recent peaks above 20°C. This shift stems from cold air advection behind a frontal boundary bringing weekend rains and increased cloud cover, which suppresses daytime insolation and caps peak temperatures below seasonal early-April averages of about 14°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on cloud persistence—thicker overcast favors 11–12°C, partial clearing pushes toward 14–16°C—and urban heat island effects at central Seoul stations. KMA short-term updates expected twice daily through April 4 will refine guidance as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on April 5?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 5?
12°C 22%
13°C 21%
14°C 18%
11°C 13%
$24,465 Vol.
$24,465 Vol.
5 abr 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
3%
10°C
4%
11°C
13%
12°C
22%
13°C
21%
14°C
18%
15°C
11%
16°C or higher
13%
12°C 22%
13°C 21%
14°C 18%
11°C 13%
$24,465 Vol.
$24,465 Vol.
5 abr 2026
6°C or below
$2,323 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$2,151 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$2,156 Vol.
1%
9°C
$1,983 Vol.
3%
10°C
$2,619 Vol.
4%
11°C
$2,872 Vol.
13%
12°C
$1,648 Vol.
22%
13°C
$1,588 Vol.
21%
14°C
$1,518 Vol.
18%
15°C
$2,396 Vol.
11%
16°C or higher
$3,213 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 12–14°C outcomes at 23.5%, 21%, and 18% implied probabilities, reflecting Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts showing April 5 highs of 13°C at Incheon International Airport and 16°C at Gimpo amid a sharp cool-down from recent peaks above 20°C. This shift stems from cold air advection behind a frontal boundary bringing weekend rains and increased cloud cover, which suppresses daytime insolation and caps peak temperatures below seasonal early-April averages of about 14°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on cloud persistence—thicker overcast favors 11–12°C, partial clearing pushes toward 14–16°C—and urban heat island effects at central Seoul stations. KMA short-term updates expected twice daily through April 4 will refine guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volumen
$24,465Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 12–14°C outcomes at 23.5%, 21%, and 18% implied probabilities, reflecting Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts showing April 5 highs of 13°C at Incheon International Airport and 16°C at Gimpo amid a sharp cool-down from recent peaks above 20°C. This shift stems from cold air advection behind a frontal boundary bringing weekend rains and increased cloud cover, which suppresses daytime insolation and caps peak temperatures below seasonal early-April averages of about 14°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on cloud persistence—thicker overcast favors 11–12°C, partial clearing pushes toward 14–16°C—and urban heat island effects at central Seoul stations. KMA short-term updates expected twice daily through April 4 will refine guidance as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$24,465Fecha de finalización
5 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 12–14°C outcomes at 23.5%, 21%, and 18% implied probabilities, reflecting Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) forecasts showing April 5 highs of 13°C at Incheon International Airport and 16°C at Gimpo amid a sharp cool-down from recent peaks above 20°C. This shift stems from cold air advection behind a frontal boundary bringing weekend rains and increased cloud cover, which suppresses daytime insolation and caps peak temperatures below seasonal early-April averages of about 14°C. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on cloud persistence—thicker overcast favors 11–12°C, partial clearing pushes toward 14–16°C—and urban heat island effects at central Seoul stations. KMA short-term updates expected twice daily through April 4 will refine guidance as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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