Trader consensus favors an 18°C high in Wuhan on March 26 at 25.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 19°C and 17°C, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting afternoon peaks in the 17-19°C range amid mild southerly flows. Late March climatology supports these odds, with historical highs averaging 16-18°C, but differentiating factors include variable cloud cover from an approaching weak front and urban heat island effects boosting readings by 1-2°C. Recent observations show overnight lows near 12°C, setting up diurnal warming tempered by light winds, with NMC forecasts holding steady absent major updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 26?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 26?
18°C 26%
17°C 19%
19°C 19%
20°C 12%
$23,863 Vol.
$23,863 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
8%
17°C
19%
18°C
26%
19°C
19%
20°C
12%
21°C or higher
6%
18°C 26%
17°C 19%
19°C 19%
20°C 12%
$23,863 Vol.
$23,863 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
2%
16°C
8%
17°C
19%
18°C
26%
19°C
19%
20°C
12%
21°C or higher
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors an 18°C high in Wuhan on March 26 at 25.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 19°C and 17°C, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting afternoon peaks in the 17-19°C range amid mild southerly flows. Late March climatology supports these odds, with historical highs averaging 16-18°C, but differentiating factors include variable cloud cover from an approaching weak front and urban heat island effects boosting readings by 1-2°C. Recent observations show overnight lows near 12°C, setting up diurnal warming tempered by light winds, with NMC forecasts holding steady absent major updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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