Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS point to a high-pressure ridge over central China driving the tight cluster of trader odds around 21–24°C for Wuhan's March 27 peak temperature, with 24°C edging ahead at 21% implied probability amid slight warm biases in recent runs. Current observations show daytime highs already reaching 20–22°C earlier this week, aligning with accelerating spring warming trends and Wuhan's urban heat island effect amplifying temps by 1–2°C above rural baselines. Differentiating factors include model spread—ECMWF drier and warmer versus GFS cloudier scenarios—and diel variability, where afternoon solar heating could push past 23°C if winds stay light under 5 m/s; traders await China's Meteorological Administration's 00Z update for resolution clarity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 27?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 27?
24°C 22%
22°C 20%
23°C 20%
21°C 19%
15°C or below
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
6%
19°C
12%
20°C
14%
21°C
19%
22°C
20%
23°C
20%
24°C
22%
25°C or higher
11%
24°C 22%
22°C 20%
23°C 20%
21°C 19%
15°C or below
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
6%
19°C
12%
20°C
14%
21°C
19%
22°C
20%
23°C
20%
24°C
22%
25°C or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:17 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS point to a high-pressure ridge over central China driving the tight cluster of trader odds around 21–24°C for Wuhan's March 27 peak temperature, with 24°C edging ahead at 21% implied probability amid slight warm biases in recent runs. Current observations show daytime highs already reaching 20–22°C earlier this week, aligning with accelerating spring warming trends and Wuhan's urban heat island effect amplifying temps by 1–2°C above rural baselines. Differentiating factors include model spread—ECMWF drier and warmer versus GFS cloudier scenarios—and diel variability, where afternoon solar heating could push past 23°C if winds stay light under 5 m/s; traders await China's Meteorological Administration's 00Z update for resolution clarity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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