Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle’s decisive primary victory on May 19, 2026, with roughly 78 percent of the vote, has reinforced trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District. The district’s D+6 partisan voting index and Hoyle’s 51.7 percent win in 2024 underpin the 87.5 percent implied probability for Democrats. Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who captured her primary with 87 percent, previously fell short in the same matchup. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major shifts reported since the primaries, the current pricing aligns with the district’s established Democratic tilt and limited national Republican investment in the race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOR-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
OR-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$11,774 Vol.
$11,774 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
88%
Partido Republicano
7%
$11,774 Vol.
$11,774 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$9,149 Vol.
88%
Partido Republicano
$2,626 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle’s decisive primary victory on May 19, 2026, with roughly 78 percent of the vote, has reinforced trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District. The district’s D+6 partisan voting index and Hoyle’s 51.7 percent win in 2024 underpin the 87.5 percent implied probability for Democrats. Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who captured her primary with 87 percent, previously fell short in the same matchup. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major shifts reported since the primaries, the current pricing aligns with the district’s established Democratic tilt and limited national Republican investment in the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$11,774Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle’s decisive primary victory on May 19, 2026, with roughly 78 percent of the vote, has reinforced trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District. The district’s D+6 partisan voting index and Hoyle’s 51.7 percent win in 2024 underpin the 87.5 percent implied probability for Democrats. Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who captured her primary with 87 percent, previously fell short in the same matchup. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major shifts reported since the primaries, the current pricing aligns with the district’s established Democratic tilt and limited national Republican investment in the race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$11,774Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle’s decisive primary victory on May 19, 2026, with roughly 78 percent of the vote, has reinforced trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee in Oregon’s 4th Congressional District. The district’s D+6 partisan voting index and Hoyle’s 51.7 percent win in 2024 underpin the 87.5 percent implied probability for Democrats. Republican nominee Monique DeSpain, who captured her primary with 87 percent, previously fell short in the same matchup. With the general election set for November 3, 2026, and no major shifts reported since the primaries, the current pricing aligns with the district’s established Democratic tilt and limited national Republican investment in the race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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