Redistricting has transformed California's 1st Congressional District into a Democratic-leaning seat by incorporating additional urban and suburban areas from neighboring districts, shifting its partisan baseline from strongly Republican to approximately D+12. This structural change, combined with the withdrawal of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, positioned Democrat Mike McGuire—a former state Senate leader with strong name recognition—to advance alongside Republican James Gallagher in the June top-two primary. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections now rate the November general election as Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats reflects this partisan realignment and limited competitive path for Republicans, though late shifts in turnout or unforeseen developments could still influence the outcome before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-01 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$35,006 Vol.
$35,006 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
96%
Partido Republicano
3%
$35,006 Vol.
$35,006 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$26,284 Vol.
96%
Partido Republicano
$8,722 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has transformed California's 1st Congressional District into a Democratic-leaning seat by incorporating additional urban and suburban areas from neighboring districts, shifting its partisan baseline from strongly Republican to approximately D+12. This structural change, combined with the withdrawal of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, positioned Democrat Mike McGuire—a former state Senate leader with strong name recognition—to advance alongside Republican James Gallagher in the June top-two primary. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections now rate the November general election as Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats reflects this partisan realignment and limited competitive path for Republicans, though late shifts in turnout or unforeseen developments could still influence the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$35,006Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has transformed California's 1st Congressional District into a Democratic-leaning seat by incorporating additional urban and suburban areas from neighboring districts, shifting its partisan baseline from strongly Republican to approximately D+12. This structural change, combined with the withdrawal of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, positioned Democrat Mike McGuire—a former state Senate leader with strong name recognition—to advance alongside Republican James Gallagher in the June top-two primary. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections now rate the November general election as Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats reflects this partisan realignment and limited competitive path for Republicans, though late shifts in turnout or unforeseen developments could still influence the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$35,006Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting has transformed California's 1st Congressional District into a Democratic-leaning seat by incorporating additional urban and suburban areas from neighboring districts, shifting its partisan baseline from strongly Republican to approximately D+12. This structural change, combined with the withdrawal of longtime Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, positioned Democrat Mike McGuire—a former state Senate leader with strong name recognition—to advance alongside Republican James Gallagher in the June top-two primary. Forecasters across Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections now rate the November general election as Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus at 95.5% for Democrats reflects this partisan realignment and limited competitive path for Republicans, though late shifts in turnout or unforeseen developments could still influence the outcome before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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