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Politics·Heist

Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?

Market icon
Politics·Heist

Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?

26% chance
Polymarket
NEW
26% chance
Polymarket
NEW
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors no recovery of any Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum stolen paintings by April 15, reflecting the case's enduring status as the largest unsolved art heist after 36 years. The FBI marked the March 18 anniversary by renewing public appeals for tips on the 13 missing masterpieces, valued over $500 million, but reported no fresh leads despite prior traces to Connecticut and Philadelphia. Ongoing Dutch Room renovations at the museum underscore persistent hope, yet the absence of breakthroughs in recent investigations, amid a cold trail since the 1990 theft, justifies the 84.5% implied probability on "No," with traders pricing in slim odds of sudden resolution before the deadline.

On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.

If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$29
End Date
Apr 15, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus heavily favors no recovery of any Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum stolen paintings by April 15, reflecting the case's enduring status as the largest unsolved art heist after 36 years. The FBI marked the March 18 anniversary by renewing public appeals for tips on the 13 missing masterpieces, valued over $500 million, but reported no fresh leads despite prior traces to Connecticut and Philadelphia. Ongoing Dutch Room renovations at the museum underscore persistent hope, yet the absence of breakthroughs in recent investigations, amid a cold trail since the 1990 theft, justifies the 84.5% implied probability on "No," with traders pricing in slim odds of sudden resolution before the deadline.

On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify.

If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$29
End Date
Apr 15, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On the evening of March 22-23, the following paintings were stolen from the Magnani Rocca Foundation: “Fish” by Auguste Renoir, “Still Life with Cherries” by Paul Cézanne, and “Odalisque on the Terrace” by Henri Matisse (see:https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/30/style/magnani-rocca-art-heist-italy-scli-intl). This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the listed paintings are recovered by the Magnani Rocca Foundation or a relevant government or law enforcement authority by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying recovery requires physical control of at least one of the listed paintings by the recovering authority. Arrests or locating a painting without physical recovery will not qualify. If a listed painting is recovered by a private individual or entity with intention of turning it over to a government authority or the Magnani Rocca Foundation, this may qualify, provided the recovery is verified by a wide consensus of credible reporting. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Magnani Rocca Foundation and any relevant government or law enforcement authority, and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 16% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 16¢, the market collectively assigns a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" is 16% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 16% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Any of the stolen paintings recovered by April 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.