Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43.5% probability for an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline), with 31% for 1.20–1.24ºC, driven by Copernicus ERA5 data showing early April temperatures at record levels following March's fourth-warmest anomaly of 1.48ºC amid near-record sea surface temperatures. Persistent ocean heat content and the transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through April–June per NOAA—support this positioning, tempering extremes while anthropogenic warming sustains elevated baselines. WMO multi-model forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures for April–May–June, though uncertainties in mid-month weather patterns persist; the full Copernicus bulletin, due early May, will finalize the monthly average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedApril 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 44%
1.20–1.24ºC 31%
1.10–1.14ºC 10%
1.25–1.29ºC 9%
$122,439 Vol.
$122,439 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
10%
1.15–1.19ºC
44%
1.20–1.24ºC
31%
1.25–1.29ºC
9%
>1.29ºC
3%
1.15–1.19ºC 44%
1.20–1.24ºC 31%
1.10–1.14ºC 10%
1.25–1.29ºC 9%
$122,439 Vol.
$122,439 Vol.
May 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$28,387 Vol.
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
$23,018 Vol.
10%
1.15–1.19ºC
$13,890 Vol.
44%
1.20–1.24ºC
$16,861 Vol.
31%
1.25–1.29ºC
$27,806 Vol.
9%
>1.29ºC
$12,477 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43.5% probability for an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline), with 31% for 1.20–1.24ºC, driven by Copernicus ERA5 data showing early April temperatures at record levels following March's fourth-warmest anomaly of 1.48ºC amid near-record sea surface temperatures. Persistent ocean heat content and the transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through April–June per NOAA—support this positioning, tempering extremes while anthropogenic warming sustains elevated baselines. WMO multi-model forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures for April–May–June, though uncertainties in mid-month weather patterns persist; the full Copernicus bulletin, due early May, will finalize the monthly average.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$122,439End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43.5% probability for an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline), with 31% for 1.20–1.24ºC, driven by Copernicus ERA5 data showing early April temperatures at record levels following March's fourth-warmest anomaly of 1.48ºC amid near-record sea surface temperatures. Persistent ocean heat content and the transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through April–June per NOAA—support this positioning, tempering extremes while anthropogenic warming sustains elevated baselines. WMO multi-model forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures for April–May–June, though uncertainties in mid-month weather patterns persist; the full Copernicus bulletin, due early May, will finalize the monthly average.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$122,439End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 43.5% probability for an April 2026 global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 baseline), with 31% for 1.20–1.24ºC, driven by Copernicus ERA5 data showing early April temperatures at record levels following March's fourth-warmest anomaly of 1.48ºC amid near-record sea surface temperatures. Persistent ocean heat content and the transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions—favored at 80% through April–June per NOAA—support this positioning, tempering extremes while anthropogenic warming sustains elevated baselines. WMO multi-model forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures for April–May–June, though uncertainties in mid-month weather patterns persist; the full Copernicus bulletin, due early May, will finalize the monthly average.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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