Recent cold fronts sweeping across the Western Cape, as reported by the South African Weather Service and local forecasters like Vox Weather, have sharply lowered maximum temperature projections for Cape Town on April 18, shifting trader consensus toward the mid-teens Celsius despite April climatological highs averaging 22-23°C. Southerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and isolated showers—evident in the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs—are capping daytime heating, with ensemble spreads showing peaks between 15-19°C explaining the tight market-implied odds (16°C at 32%, flanked by 18°C at 23.5% and others near 20%). Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists, but updated model outputs expected April 17 will likely narrow differentiation ahead of resolution based on official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on April 18?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 18?
18°C 33%
16°C 32%
17°C 22%
19°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 18, 2026
13°C or below
2%
14°C
4%
15°C
17%
16°C
32%
17°C
21%
18°C
23%
19°C
19%
20°C
10%
21°C
2%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 33%
16°C 32%
17°C 22%
19°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Apr 18, 2026
13°C or below
$257 Vol.
2%
14°C
$16 Vol.
4%
15°C
$3 Vol.
17%
16°C
$8 Vol.
32%
17°C
$3 Vol.
21%
18°C
$3 Vol.
23%
19°C
$3 Vol.
19%
20°C
$26 Vol.
10%
21°C
$78 Vol.
2%
22°C
$180 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$121 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent cold fronts sweeping across the Western Cape, as reported by the South African Weather Service and local forecasters like Vox Weather, have sharply lowered maximum temperature projections for Cape Town on April 18, shifting trader consensus toward the mid-teens Celsius despite April climatological highs averaging 22-23°C. Southerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and isolated showers—evident in the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs—are capping daytime heating, with ensemble spreads showing peaks between 15-19°C explaining the tight market-implied odds (16°C at 32%, flanked by 18°C at 23.5% and others near 20%). Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists, but updated model outputs expected April 17 will likely narrow differentiation ahead of resolution based on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 2:04 AM ET
Volume
$693End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent cold fronts sweeping across the Western Cape, as reported by the South African Weather Service and local forecasters like Vox Weather, have sharply lowered maximum temperature projections for Cape Town on April 18, shifting trader consensus toward the mid-teens Celsius despite April climatological highs averaging 22-23°C. Southerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and isolated showers—evident in the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs—are capping daytime heating, with ensemble spreads showing peaks between 15-19°C explaining the tight market-implied odds (16°C at 32%, flanked by 18°C at 23.5% and others near 20%). Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists, but updated model outputs expected April 17 will likely narrow differentiation ahead of resolution based on official observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$693End Date
Apr 18, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cold fronts sweeping across the Western Cape, as reported by the South African Weather Service and local forecasters like Vox Weather, have sharply lowered maximum temperature projections for Cape Town on April 18, shifting trader consensus toward the mid-teens Celsius despite April climatological highs averaging 22-23°C. Southerly winds, persistent cloud cover, and isolated showers—evident in the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs—are capping daytime heating, with ensemble spreads showing peaks between 15-19°C explaining the tight market-implied odds (16°C at 32%, flanked by 18°C at 23.5% and others near 20%). Inherent short-range forecast uncertainty persists, but updated model outputs expected April 17 will likely narrow differentiation ahead of resolution based on official observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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