Post-election surveys and exit polls following the April 9 Assam Legislative Assembly voting—marked by record 76% turnout—project the incumbent BJP-led NDA alliance securing 90-102 of 126 seats, well above the 64-seat majority threshold, driving trader consensus to 95.5% implied probability for BJP victory. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's focus on development, job creation, and peace has bolstered incumbency advantages amid a fragmented opposition, with INC alliances polling at 22-32 seats. Consistent pre-poll data from sources like ABP-Matrize reinforces this positioning. Results await counting on May 4; a dramatic upset would require unforeseen vote shifts, EVM discrepancies, or coalition realignments, though historical patterns favor poll accuracy in state elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAssam Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Assam Legislative Assembly Election Winner
BJP 95.6%
INC 3.0%
AITC <1%
CPI(M) <1%
$61,290 Vol.
$61,290 Vol.
May 20, 2026
BJP
96%
INC
3%
AITC
<1%
CPI(M)
<1%
NCP
<1%
AIUDF
<1%
BPF
<1%
CPI
<1%
NPEP
<1%
AGP
<1%
BJP 95.6%
INC 3.0%
AITC <1%
CPI(M) <1%
$61,290 Vol.
$61,290 Vol.
May 20, 2026
BJP
$11,835 Vol.
96%
INC
$7,409 Vol.
3%
AITC
$4,519 Vol.
<1%
CPI(M)
$4,847 Vol.
<1%
NCP
$4,222 Vol.
<1%
AIUDF
$4,933 Vol.
<1%
BPF
$4,474 Vol.
<1%
CPI
$9,171 Vol.
<1%
NPEP
$5,221 Vol.
<1%
AGP
$4,659 Vol.
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Post-election surveys and exit polls following the April 9 Assam Legislative Assembly voting—marked by record 76% turnout—project the incumbent BJP-led NDA alliance securing 90-102 of 126 seats, well above the 64-seat majority threshold, driving trader consensus to 95.5% implied probability for BJP victory. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's focus on development, job creation, and peace has bolstered incumbency advantages amid a fragmented opposition, with INC alliances polling at 22-32 seats. Consistent pre-poll data from sources like ABP-Matrize reinforces this positioning. Results await counting on May 4; a dramatic upset would require unforeseen vote shifts, EVM discrepancies, or coalition realignments, though historical patterns favor poll accuracy in state elections.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ET
Volume
$61,290End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).Post-election surveys and exit polls following the April 9 Assam Legislative Assembly voting—marked by record 76% turnout—project the incumbent BJP-led NDA alliance securing 90-102 of 126 seats, well above the 64-seat majority threshold, driving trader consensus to 95.5% implied probability for BJP victory. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's focus on development, job creation, and peace has bolstered incumbency advantages amid a fragmented opposition, with INC alliances polling at 22-32 seats. Consistent pre-poll data from sources like ABP-Matrize reinforces this positioning. Results await counting on May 4; a dramatic upset would require unforeseen vote shifts, EVM discrepancies, or coalition realignments, though historical patterns favor poll accuracy in state elections.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Assam, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Assam Legislative Assembly election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Assam Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (eci.gov.in). If there are multiple reports, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the most Assembly Constituencies (AC).
Volume
$61,290End Date
Apr 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 3:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Post-election surveys and exit polls following the April 9 Assam Legislative Assembly voting—marked by record 76% turnout—project the incumbent BJP-led NDA alliance securing 90-102 of 126 seats, well above the 64-seat majority threshold, driving trader consensus to 95.5% implied probability for BJP victory. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's focus on development, job creation, and peace has bolstered incumbency advantages amid a fragmented opposition, with INC alliances polling at 22-32 seats. Consistent pre-poll data from sources like ABP-Matrize reinforces this positioning. Results await counting on May 4; a dramatic upset would require unforeseen vote shifts, EVM discrepancies, or coalition realignments, though historical patterns favor poll accuracy in state elections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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