Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking holds a near-certain market-implied lead at 99.5% because its February 2026 release delivered state-of-the-art results on agentic coding benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 2.0, complex multidisciplinary reasoning tests like Humanity’s Last Exam, and economically valuable tasks on GDPval-AA, where it outperformed the next-best model by a wide margin. Traders view the “thinking” mode’s enhanced planning, instruction-following, and multi-step execution as decisive advantages in the current competitive landscape. Newer variants from Anthropic and rivals remain in testing or lag on the precise criteria likely used for this June 6 snapshot. A late-breaking model release, benchmark revision, or shift in evaluation methodology could still alter the outcome, though the current data flow shows no such catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.5%
Other <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
gemini-3.5-flash <1%
$9,134 Vol.
$9,134 Vol.
Jun 6, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
Other
No
claude-opus-4-6
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
No
gemini-3.5-flash
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.5%
Other <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
gemini-3.5-flash <1%
$9,134 Vol.
$9,134 Vol.
Jun 6, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$2,208 Vol.
Yes
Other
$1,852 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-6
$1,186 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$1,656 Vol.
No
gemini-3.5-flash
$1,070 Vol.
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,164 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking holds a near-certain market-implied lead at 99.5% because its February 2026 release delivered state-of-the-art results on agentic coding benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 2.0, complex multidisciplinary reasoning tests like Humanity’s Last Exam, and economically valuable tasks on GDPval-AA, where it outperformed the next-best model by a wide margin. Traders view the “thinking” mode’s enhanced planning, instruction-following, and multi-step execution as decisive advantages in the current competitive landscape. Newer variants from Anthropic and rivals remain in testing or lag on the precise criteria likely used for this June 6 snapshot. A late-breaking model release, benchmark revision, or shift in evaluation methodology could still alter the outcome, though the current data flow shows no such catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 1, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$9,134End Date
Jun 6, 2026Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking holds a near-certain market-implied lead at 99.5% because its February 2026 release delivered state-of-the-art results on agentic coding benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 2.0, complex multidisciplinary reasoning tests like Humanity’s Last Exam, and economically valuable tasks on GDPval-AA, where it outperformed the next-best model by a wide margin. Traders view the “thinking” mode’s enhanced planning, instruction-following, and multi-step execution as decisive advantages in the current competitive landscape. Newer variants from Anthropic and rivals remain in testing or lag on the precise criteria likely used for this June 6 snapshot. A late-breaking model release, benchmark revision, or shift in evaluation methodology could still alter the outcome, though the current data flow shows no such catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$9,134End Date
Jun 6, 2026Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking holds a near-certain market-implied lead at 99.5% because its February 2026 release delivered state-of-the-art results on agentic coding benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench 2.0, complex multidisciplinary reasoning tests like Humanity’s Last Exam, and economically valuable tasks on GDPval-AA, where it outperformed the next-best model by a wide margin. Traders view the “thinking” mode’s enhanced planning, instruction-following, and multi-step execution as decisive advantages in the current competitive landscape. Newer variants from Anthropic and rivals remain in testing or lag on the precise criteria likely used for this June 6 snapshot. A late-breaking model release, benchmark revision, or shift in evaluation methodology could still alter the outcome, though the current data flow shows no such catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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