Traders have coalesced around claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the leading AI model, driven by its recent demonstrated gains in advanced reasoning benchmarks and style-controlled evaluations that set it apart from Gemini 3 variants and prior Claude releases. This market-implied consensus reflects verified capability edges in large language model tasks, including improved context handling and output quality, amid ongoing competition among labs like Anthropic, Google, and others. While the strong positioning leaves limited room for reversal before resolution, credible new model launches, updated third-party benchmarks, or shifts in evaluation criteria could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
gemini-3.5-flash <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$38,961 Vol.
$38,961 Vol.
May 30, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
claude-opus-4-6
No
gemini-3.5-flash
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
No
gemini-3-pro
No
claude-opus-4-7
No
qwen3.7-max-preview
No
Other
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
gemini-3.5-flash <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$38,961 Vol.
$38,961 Vol.
May 30, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$17,427 Vol.
Yes
claude-opus-4-6
$5,890 Vol.
No
gemini-3.5-flash
$319 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$1,878 Vol.
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$368 Vol.
No
gemini-3-pro
$360 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-7
$278 Vol.
No
qwen3.7-max-preview
$445 Vol.
No
Other
$11,997 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have coalesced around claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the leading AI model, driven by its recent demonstrated gains in advanced reasoning benchmarks and style-controlled evaluations that set it apart from Gemini 3 variants and prior Claude releases. This market-implied consensus reflects verified capability edges in large language model tasks, including improved context handling and output quality, amid ongoing competition among labs like Anthropic, Google, and others. While the strong positioning leaves limited room for reversal before resolution, credible new model launches, updated third-party benchmarks, or shifts in evaluation criteria could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 12:53 PM ET
Volume
$38,961End Date
May 30, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders have coalesced around claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the leading AI model, driven by its recent demonstrated gains in advanced reasoning benchmarks and style-controlled evaluations that set it apart from Gemini 3 variants and prior Claude releases. This market-implied consensus reflects verified capability edges in large language model tasks, including improved context handling and output quality, amid ongoing competition among labs like Anthropic, Google, and others. While the strong positioning leaves limited room for reversal before resolution, credible new model launches, updated third-party benchmarks, or shifts in evaluation criteria could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$38,961End Date
May 30, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Traders have coalesced around claude-opus-4-6-thinking as the leading AI model, driven by its recent demonstrated gains in advanced reasoning benchmarks and style-controlled evaluations that set it apart from Gemini 3 variants and prior Claude releases. This market-implied consensus reflects verified capability edges in large language model tasks, including improved context handling and output quality, amid ongoing competition among labs like Anthropic, Google, and others. While the strong positioning leaves limited room for reversal before resolution, credible new model launches, updated third-party benchmarks, or shifts in evaluation criteria could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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