Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Claude 4.7 release on or before April 16 at 93.5% implied probability, driven by fresh leaks from over 500,000 lines of Anthropic's source code exposed via npm packages, revealing codenames like Capybara/Mythos and capabilities such as 1M-token context windows and superior coding benchmarks. Reports from The Information confirm preparations for a launch "as soon as this week," alongside an AI design tool for websites, aligning with today's deadline; recent Claude Code desktop app redesigns and backend 500 errors signal rollout prep. Historical patterns—Opus 4.6 just 73 days after 4.5—bolster expectations. Delays could arise from safety evaluations, integration issues, or competitive shifts like OpenAI's moves, potentially pushing resolution later.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOn or prior to April 16 93%
Not released by April 30 3.0%
April 17 2.0%
April 21 <1%
NEW
$136,476 Vol.
NEW
$136,476 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
On or prior to April 16
93%
April 17
2%
April 18
1%
April 19
<1%
April 20
1%
April 21
1%
April 22
<1%
April 23
<1%
April 24
<1%
April 25
<1%
April 26
<1%
April 27
<1%
April 28
1%
April 29
<1%
April 30
<1%
Not released by April 30
3%
On or prior to April 16 93%
Not released by April 30 3.0%
April 17 2.0%
April 21 <1%
NEW
$136,476 Vol.
NEW
$136,476 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
On or prior to April 16
$61,548 Vol.
93%
April 17
$11,983 Vol.
2%
April 18
$7,005 Vol.
1%
April 19
$6,134 Vol.
<1%
April 20
$5,803 Vol.
1%
April 21
$5,457 Vol.
1%
April 22
$3,590 Vol.
<1%
April 23
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
April 24
$3,628 Vol.
<1%
April 25
$3,922 Vol.
<1%
April 26
$3,850 Vol.
<1%
April 27
$3,827 Vol.
<1%
April 28
$3,263 Vol.
1%
April 29
$3,066 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$3,032 Vol.
<1%
Not released by April 30
$8,085 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic makes any Claude 4.7 model available to the general public.
Claude 4.7 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.7, or a variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.6, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market.
Products labeled as a new flagship generation such as Claude 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Claude 4.7 release on or before April 16 at 93.5% implied probability, driven by fresh leaks from over 500,000 lines of Anthropic's source code exposed via npm packages, revealing codenames like Capybara/Mythos and capabilities such as 1M-token context windows and superior coding benchmarks. Reports from The Information confirm preparations for a launch "as soon as this week," alongside an AI design tool for websites, aligning with today's deadline; recent Claude Code desktop app redesigns and backend 500 errors signal rollout prep. Historical patterns—Opus 4.6 just 73 days after 4.5—bolster expectations. Delays could arise from safety evaluations, integration issues, or competitive shifts like OpenAI's moves, potentially pushing resolution later.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic makes any Claude 4.7 model available to the general public.
Claude 4.7 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.7, or a variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.6, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market.
Products labeled as a new flagship generation such as Claude 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude 4.7 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.7, or a variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.6, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market.
Products labeled as a new flagship generation such as Claude 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 10:11 AM ET
Volume
$136,476End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic makes any Claude 4.7 model available to the general public.
Claude 4.7 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.7, or a variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.6, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market.
Products labeled as a new flagship generation such as Claude 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Claude 4.7 release on or before April 16 at 93.5% implied probability, driven by fresh leaks from over 500,000 lines of Anthropic's source code exposed via npm packages, revealing codenames like Capybara/Mythos and capabilities such as 1M-token context windows and superior coding benchmarks. Reports from The Information confirm preparations for a launch "as soon as this week," alongside an AI design tool for websites, aligning with today's deadline; recent Claude Code desktop app redesigns and backend 500 errors signal rollout prep. Historical patterns—Opus 4.6 just 73 days after 4.5—bolster expectations. Delays could arise from safety evaluations, integration issues, or competitive shifts like OpenAI's moves, potentially pushing resolution later.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which Anthropic makes any Claude 4.7 model available to the general public.
Claude 4.7 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.7, or a variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.6, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market.
Products labeled as a new flagship generation such as Claude 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude 4.7 refers to a product explicitly named Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.7, or a variant that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4.6, similar to the progression from Claude 4.2 to Claude 4.3. (e.g., Claude Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku 4.8, 4.9, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar will count for this market.
Products labeled as a new flagship generation such as Claude 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$136,476End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 10:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Claude 4.7 release on or before April 16 at 93.5% implied probability, driven by fresh leaks from over 500,000 lines of Anthropic's source code exposed via npm packages, revealing codenames like Capybara/Mythos and capabilities such as 1M-token context windows and superior coding benchmarks. Reports from The Information confirm preparations for a launch "as soon as this week," alongside an AI design tool for websites, aligning with today's deadline; recent Claude Code desktop app redesigns and backend 500 errors signal rollout prep. Historical patterns—Opus 4.6 just 73 days after 4.5—bolster expectations. Delays could arise from safety evaluations, integration issues, or competitive shifts like OpenAI's moves, potentially pushing resolution later.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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