Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5 in June 2026 as its first widely available Mythos-class model, setting output token pricing at $50 per million tokens—double the rate of contemporaneous Opus 4.8—alongside $10 input pricing and a 1M context window. Fable 5.1 followed in late August with the same headline rates but introduced substantial cache-read reductions that lowered effective costs for typical workloads by around 25%. This premium positioning reflects the model's gains on coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench and long-horizon tasks, even as export controls briefly disrupted access in June before lifting in early July. Traders are watching whether Fable 5.2 or later versions hold the $50 output debut amid competition from cheaper Opus 5.5 ($20 output) and potential demand-driven adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Jun 30, 2027
$40+
72%
$50+
29%
$60+
28%
$75+
29%
$20 Vol.
$40+
$20 Vol.
72%
$50+
$0 Vol.
29%
$60+
$0 Vol.
28%
$75+
$0 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Fable model (5.2+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies.
If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5 in June 2026 as its first widely available Mythos-class model, setting output token pricing at $50 per million tokens—double the rate of contemporaneous Opus 4.8—alongside $10 input pricing and a 1M context window. Fable 5.1 followed in late August with the same headline rates but introduced substantial cache-read reductions that lowered effective costs for typical workloads by around 25%. This premium positioning reflects the model's gains on coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench and long-horizon tasks, even as export controls briefly disrupted access in June before lifting in early July. Traders are watching whether Fable 5.2 or later versions hold the $50 output debut amid competition from cheaper Opus 5.5 ($20 output) and potential demand-driven adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Fable model (5.2+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies.
If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies.
If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 4:53 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 4:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricingResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Fable model (5.2+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies.
If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5 in June 2026 as its first widely available Mythos-class model, setting output token pricing at $50 per million tokens—double the rate of contemporaneous Opus 4.8—alongside $10 input pricing and a 1M context window. Fable 5.1 followed in late August with the same headline rates but introduced substantial cache-read reductions that lowered effective costs for typical workloads by around 25%. This premium positioning reflects the model's gains on coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench and long-horizon tasks, even as export controls briefly disrupted access in June before lifting in early July. Traders are watching whether Fable 5.2 or later versions hold the $50 output debut amid competition from cheaper Opus 5.5 ($20 output) and potential demand-driven adjustments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Fable model (5.2+) debuts at a standard output token price of at least the specified price, in USD per million tokens. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies.
If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
The debut price is the “Base tokens” output price for default global inference, at the rate that does not trigger a long-context surcharge, announced by Anthropic or listed on its official API pricing page when the model is first made available to the general public. An introductory price qualifies. Batch, fast mode, cached, US-only inference, and other data-residency prices do not qualify. If multiple qualifying models debut on the same date, the highest qualifying price applies.
If no qualifying model is made available to the general public by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, including its official API pricing page (https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 4:53 AM ETResolution Source
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricingResolver
0x65070be91...Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5 in June 2026 as its first widely available Mythos-class model, setting output token pricing at $50 per million tokens—double the rate of contemporaneous Opus 4.8—alongside $10 input pricing and a 1M context window. Fable 5.1 followed in late August with the same headline rates but introduced substantial cache-read reductions that lowered effective costs for typical workloads by around 25%. This premium positioning reflects the model's gains on coding benchmarks like SWE-Bench and long-horizon tasks, even as export controls briefly disrupted access in June before lifting in early July. Traders are watching whether Fable 5.2 or later versions hold the $50 output debut amid competition from cheaper Opus 5.5 ($20 output) and potential demand-driven adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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