Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow “in the coming weeks,” is the dominant catalyst behind the tightly clustered market-implied odds favoring late September or early October. Traders are pricing in the lab’s recent cadence—Sonnet 5 shipped June 30, four months after Sonnet 4.6—while noting the absence of a precise date, model card, or pricing details. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model updates, plus Anthropic’s pattern of rapid mid-tier follow-ons after flagship releases, supports the near-even probabilities across September 27–October 3 windows. Key swing factors include any additional developer-conference signals or internal testing leaks that could accelerate or slip the timeline before the October 15 resolution threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOn or prior to September 24 23%
No release by October 15 15%
September 30 14%
October 5 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
On or prior to September 24
23%
September 25
14%
September 26
14%
September 27
13%
September 28
14%
September 29
13%
September 30
14%
October 1
13%
October 2
13%
October 3
14%
October 4
14%
October 5
14%
October 6
14%
October 7
14%
October 8
14%
October 9
14%
October 10
14%
October 11
14%
October 12
14%
October 13
13%
October 14
14%
October 15
14%
No release by October 15
15%
On or prior to September 24 23%
No release by October 15 15%
September 30 14%
October 5 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
On or prior to September 24
$0 Vol.
23%
September 25
$0 Vol.
14%
September 26
$0 Vol.
14%
September 27
$0 Vol.
13%
September 28
$0 Vol.
14%
September 29
$0 Vol.
13%
September 30
$0 Vol.
14%
October 1
$0 Vol.
13%
October 2
$0 Vol.
13%
October 3
$0 Vol.
14%
October 4
$0 Vol.
14%
October 5
$0 Vol.
14%
October 6
$0 Vol.
14%
October 7
$0 Vol.
14%
October 8
$0 Vol.
14%
October 9
$0 Vol.
14%
October 10
$0 Vol.
14%
October 11
$0 Vol.
14%
October 12
$0 Vol.
14%
October 13
$0 Vol.
13%
October 14
$0 Vol.
14%
October 15
$0 Vol.
14%
No release by October 15
$0 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow “in the coming weeks,” is the dominant catalyst behind the tightly clustered market-implied odds favoring late September or early October. Traders are pricing in the lab’s recent cadence—Sonnet 5 shipped June 30, four months after Sonnet 4.6—while noting the absence of a precise date, model card, or pricing details. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model updates, plus Anthropic’s pattern of rapid mid-tier follow-ons after flagship releases, supports the near-even probabilities across September 27–October 3 windows. Key swing factors include any additional developer-conference signals or internal testing leaks that could accelerate or slip the timeline before the October 15 resolution threshold.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 24, 2026, 3:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 3:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow “in the coming weeks,” is the dominant catalyst behind the tightly clustered market-implied odds favoring late September or early October. Traders are pricing in the lab’s recent cadence—Sonnet 5 shipped June 30, four months after Sonnet 4.6—while noting the absence of a precise date, model card, or pricing details. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model updates, plus Anthropic’s pattern of rapid mid-tier follow-ons after flagship releases, supports the near-even probabilities across September 27–October 3 windows. Key swing factors include any additional developer-conference signals or internal testing leaks that could accelerate or slip the timeline before the October 15 resolution threshold.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Sonnet model is made available to the general public.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Sonnet refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Sonnet. Qualifying models include Claude Sonnet 5.1, Claude Sonnet 5.5, Sonnet 6, or any other Sonnet variants. Models under any other name, such as Opus, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Sonnet by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 24, 2026, 3:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47de9d...Anthropic’s September 22 announcement of Claude Opus 5.5, which explicitly stated that Sonnet 5.5 and Haiku 5.5 would follow “in the coming weeks,” is the dominant catalyst behind the tightly clustered market-implied odds favoring late September or early October. Traders are pricing in the lab’s recent cadence—Sonnet 5 shipped June 30, four months after Sonnet 4.6—while noting the absence of a precise date, model card, or pricing details. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google model updates, plus Anthropic’s pattern of rapid mid-tier follow-ons after flagship releases, supports the near-even probabilities across September 27–October 3 windows. Key swing factors include any additional developer-conference signals or internal testing leaks that could accelerate or slip the timeline before the October 15 resolution threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions