Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet count market reflects a tight cluster around 240-299 posts for the April 17-24 window, with 260-279 leading at 16.5% implied probability, mirroring recent weekly totals like 299 posts from April 7-14 and roughly 270 the prior week. This competitive spread underscores Elon's variable posting cadence—averaging 35-40 daily amid viral cultural flashpoints such as South African anti-white violence rhetoric and Grok AI benchmark dominance in the last 48 hours—while lower bins account for potential weekend dips or lulls absent major Tesla, SpaceX, or X platform announcements. Swing factors include breaking political controversies or xAI updates, with real-time tracking from April 15-16 poised to sharpen the frontrunner before the period locks in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated260-279 17%
240-259 16%
280-299 15%
300-319 14%
$503,345 Vol.
$503,345 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
160-179
2%
180-199
2%
200-219
6%
220-239
10%
240-259
16%
260-279
17%
280-299
15%
300-319
14%
320-339
9%
340-359
5%
360-379
4%
380-399
2%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
1%
260-279 17%
240-259 16%
280-299 15%
300-319 14%
$503,345 Vol.
$503,345 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
1%
160-179
2%
180-199
2%
200-219
6%
220-239
10%
240-259
16%
260-279
17%
280-299
15%
300-319
14%
320-339
9%
340-359
5%
360-379
4%
380-399
2%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Musk tweet count market reflects a tight cluster around 240-299 posts for the April 17-24 window, with 260-279 leading at 16.5% implied probability, mirroring recent weekly totals like 299 posts from April 7-14 and roughly 270 the prior week. This competitive spread underscores Elon's variable posting cadence—averaging 35-40 daily amid viral cultural flashpoints such as South African anti-white violence rhetoric and Grok AI benchmark dominance in the last 48 hours—while lower bins account for potential weekend dips or lulls absent major Tesla, SpaceX, or X platform announcements. Swing factors include breaking political controversies or xAI updates, with real-time tracking from April 15-16 poised to sharpen the frontrunner before the period locks in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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