President Trump's recent Truth Social tirade five days ago targeting Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones for criticizing his administration's Iran war policy has boosted trader consensus on those conservative commentators, with Candace Owens at 74% implied probability, Tucker Carlson at 33%, and Megyn Kelly at 35%. His weekend attacks on Pope Leo XIV—labeling the pontiff "weak on crime" and "terrible on foreign policy" over opposition to Iran military actions—elevated that outcome to 36%, though a related market prices further disparagement at 28%. Joe Biden dominates at 94% following a fresh April 13 personal insult, reflecting persistent rivalry patterns. Keir Starmer trades at 81% amid U.S.-UK tensions. Iran escalation signals or midterm jockeying through April 30 could shift odds via new Truth Social posts or interviews.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
$31,575 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Joe Biden
94%
Barack Obama
54%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
49%
Keir Starmer
63%
Megyn Kelly
31%
Tucker Carlson
29%
Alex Jones
14%
Pope Leo XIV
37%
Pam Bondi
7%
Elon Musk
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
4%
Viktor Orbán
4%
Vladimir Putin
3%
Xi Jinping
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Melania Trump
1%
Candace Owens
43%
$31,575 Vol.
Joe Biden
$8,529 Vol.
94%
Barack Obama
$1,293 Vol.
54%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$120 Vol.
49%
Keir Starmer
$38 Vol.
63%
Megyn Kelly
$0 Vol.
31%
Tucker Carlson
$454 Vol.
29%
Alex Jones
$1,134 Vol.
14%
Pope Leo XIV
$1,331 Vol.
37%
Pam Bondi
$203 Vol.
7%
Elon Musk
$334 Vol.
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$5,896 Vol.
4%
Viktor Orbán
$2,592 Vol.
4%
Vladimir Putin
$1,003 Vol.
3%
Xi Jinping
$3,999 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$2,077 Vol.
2%
Melania Trump
$2,526 Vol.
1%
Candace Owens
$47 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's recent Truth Social tirade five days ago targeting Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones for criticizing his administration's Iran war policy has boosted trader consensus on those conservative commentators, with Candace Owens at 74% implied probability, Tucker Carlson at 33%, and Megyn Kelly at 35%. His weekend attacks on Pope Leo XIV—labeling the pontiff "weak on crime" and "terrible on foreign policy" over opposition to Iran military actions—elevated that outcome to 36%, though a related market prices further disparagement at 28%. Joe Biden dominates at 94% following a fresh April 13 personal insult, reflecting persistent rivalry patterns. Keir Starmer trades at 81% amid U.S.-UK tensions. Iran escalation signals or midterm jockeying through April 30 could shift odds via new Truth Social posts or interviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$31,575End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's recent Truth Social tirade five days ago targeting Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones for criticizing his administration's Iran war policy has boosted trader consensus on those conservative commentators, with Candace Owens at 74% implied probability, Tucker Carlson at 33%, and Megyn Kelly at 35%. His weekend attacks on Pope Leo XIV—labeling the pontiff "weak on crime" and "terrible on foreign policy" over opposition to Iran military actions—elevated that outcome to 36%, though a related market prices further disparagement at 28%. Joe Biden dominates at 94% following a fresh April 13 personal insult, reflecting persistent rivalry patterns. Keir Starmer trades at 81% amid U.S.-UK tensions. Iran escalation signals or midterm jockeying through April 30 could shift odds via new Truth Social posts or interviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,575End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's recent Truth Social tirade five days ago targeting Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones for criticizing his administration's Iran war policy has boosted trader consensus on those conservative commentators, with Candace Owens at 74% implied probability, Tucker Carlson at 33%, and Megyn Kelly at 35%. His weekend attacks on Pope Leo XIV—labeling the pontiff "weak on crime" and "terrible on foreign policy" over opposition to Iran military actions—elevated that outcome to 36%, though a related market prices further disparagement at 28%. Joe Biden dominates at 94% following a fresh April 13 personal insult, reflecting persistent rivalry patterns. Keir Starmer trades at 81% amid U.S.-UK tensions. Iran escalation signals or midterm jockeying through April 30 could shift odds via new Truth Social posts or interviews.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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