Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 40-64 tweets by Elon Musk from April 13-15 (51% implied probability), reflecting his recent moderate posting pace of 15-25 original posts and replies per day, as tracked in resolved markets like April 9-11 (25 posts early) and April 3-10 (around 240 total). This edges out under-40 (50%) amid steady engagement on viral topics—SpaceX Falcon landings, Grok saves, and political replies—but higher bins linger at 50% due to historical spikes near 35 daily during news cycles. Competitive dynamics hinge on weekend lulls versus unannounced catalysts like Tesla updates or X platform buzz, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in forecasting celebrity social media volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated65-89 45%
40-64 29%
90-114 15%
115-139 4%
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
<40
3%
40-64
29%
65-89
45%
90-114
15%
115-139
4%
140-164
3%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 45%
40-64 29%
90-114 15%
115-139 4%
NEW
NEW
Apr 15, 2026
<40
$295 Vol.
3%
40-64
$312 Vol.
29%
65-89
$490 Vol.
45%
90-114
$1,258 Vol.
15%
115-139
$247 Vol.
4%
140-164
$42 Vol.
3%
165-189
$190 Vol.
1%
190-214
$161 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$161 Vol.
<1%
240+
$397 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 40-64 tweets by Elon Musk from April 13-15 (51% implied probability), reflecting his recent moderate posting pace of 15-25 original posts and replies per day, as tracked in resolved markets like April 9-11 (25 posts early) and April 3-10 (around 240 total). This edges out under-40 (50%) amid steady engagement on viral topics—SpaceX Falcon landings, Grok saves, and political replies—but higher bins linger at 50% due to historical spikes near 35 daily during news cycles. Competitive dynamics hinge on weekend lulls versus unannounced catalysts like Tesla updates or X platform buzz, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in forecasting celebrity social media volatility.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$3,541End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 40-64 tweets by Elon Musk from April 13-15 (51% implied probability), reflecting his recent moderate posting pace of 15-25 original posts and replies per day, as tracked in resolved markets like April 9-11 (25 posts early) and April 3-10 (around 240 total). This edges out under-40 (50%) amid steady engagement on viral topics—SpaceX Falcon landings, Grok saves, and political replies—but higher bins linger at 50% due to historical spikes near 35 daily during news cycles. Competitive dynamics hinge on weekend lulls versus unannounced catalysts like Tesla updates or X platform buzz, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in forecasting celebrity social media volatility.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$3,541End Date
Apr 15, 2026Market Opened
Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward 40-64 tweets by Elon Musk from April 13-15 (51% implied probability), reflecting his recent moderate posting pace of 15-25 original posts and replies per day, as tracked in resolved markets like April 9-11 (25 posts early) and April 3-10 (around 240 total). This edges out under-40 (50%) amid steady engagement on viral topics—SpaceX Falcon landings, Grok saves, and political replies—but higher bins linger at 50% due to historical spikes near 35 daily during news cycles. Competitive dynamics hinge on weekend lulls versus unannounced catalysts like Tesla updates or X platform buzz, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in forecasting celebrity social media volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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