President Donald Trump's recent Truth Social tirades, including a nearly 500-word post on April 9 savaging conservative critics Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones as "losers," "stupid," and "nut jobs" for opposing his Iran military actions, have solidified trader consensus on his combative social media style. This follows a profanity-laced outburst against Iran six days earlier threatening infrastructure strikes amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. With deepening MAGA rifts, potential congressional hearings on the conflict, and no moderation in rhetoric, traders imply a 55% probability of another public insult in the market window, balancing his track record against brief lulls, in a closely contested outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
$11,005 Vol.
Apr 11, 2026
April 11
53%
April 12
43%
April 13
49%
April 14
50%
April 15
49%
April 16
52%
April 17
61%
April 18
51%
April 19
50%
April 20
52%
April 21
50%
April 22
51%
April 23
44%
April 24
44%
April 25
51%
April 26
50%
April 27
50%
April 28
50%
April 29
50%
April 30
50%
$11,005 Vol.
April 11
$495 Vol.
53%
April 12
$44 Vol.
43%
April 13
$46 Vol.
49%
April 14
$69 Vol.
50%
April 15
$2,644 Vol.
49%
April 16
$41 Vol.
52%
April 17
$1,884 Vol.
61%
April 18
$6 Vol.
51%
April 19
$6 Vol.
50%
April 20
$471 Vol.
52%
April 21
$6 Vol.
50%
April 22
$6 Vol.
51%
April 23
$509 Vol.
44%
April 24
$2,712 Vol.
44%
April 25
$2,067 Vol.
51%
April 26
$0 Vol.
50%
April 27
$0 Vol.
50%
April 28
$0 Vol.
50%
April 29
$0 Vol.
50%
April 30
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump's recent Truth Social tirades, including a nearly 500-word post on April 9 savaging conservative critics Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones as "losers," "stupid," and "nut jobs" for opposing his Iran military actions, have solidified trader consensus on his combative social media style. This follows a profanity-laced outburst against Iran six days earlier threatening infrastructure strikes amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. With deepening MAGA rifts, potential congressional hearings on the conflict, and no moderation in rhetoric, traders imply a 55% probability of another public insult in the market window, balancing his track record against brief lulls, in a closely contested outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Apr 10, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$11,005End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump's recent Truth Social tirades, including a nearly 500-word post on April 9 savaging conservative critics Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones as "losers," "stupid," and "nut jobs" for opposing his Iran military actions, have solidified trader consensus on his combative social media style. This follows a profanity-laced outburst against Iran six days earlier threatening infrastructure strikes amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. With deepening MAGA rifts, potential congressional hearings on the conflict, and no moderation in rhetoric, traders imply a 55% probability of another public insult in the market window, balancing his track record against brief lulls, in a closely contested outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,005End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 10, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump's recent Truth Social tirades, including a nearly 500-word post on April 9 savaging conservative critics Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones as "losers," "stupid," and "nut jobs" for opposing his Iran military actions, have solidified trader consensus on his combative social media style. This follows a profanity-laced outburst against Iran six days earlier threatening infrastructure strikes amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. With deepening MAGA rifts, potential congressional hearings on the conflict, and no moderation in rhetoric, traders imply a 55% probability of another public insult in the market window, balancing his track record against brief lulls, in a closely contested outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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