Trader consensus favors 65-89 tweets from Elon Musk over March 21-23, 2026 (31.5% implied probability), reflecting his historical weekend cadence of 20-30 posts daily amid X's algorithm tweaks boosting visibility. Close behind at 23% for 90-114, this rivalry hinges on potential viral spikes from Tesla unveilings, SpaceX milestones, or meme-fueled culture wars, as seen in his 2024 averages exceeding 40 tweets/day during controversies. Lower ranges like 40-64 (19.5%) account for rare lulls, but sub-40 odds (6.8%) dismiss his relentless engagement style; upcoming 2026 event calendars could tip dynamics toward higher bins if political or tech drama erupts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated65-89 32%
90-114 25%
40-64 19%
115-139 12%
$53,860 Vol.
$53,860 Vol.
<40
6%
40-64
19%
65-89
32%
90-114
25%
115-139
12%
140-164
6%
165-189
2%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
<1%
65-89 32%
90-114 25%
40-64 19%
115-139 12%
$53,860 Vol.
$53,860 Vol.
<40
6%
40-64
19%
65-89
32%
90-114
25%
115-139
12%
140-164
6%
165-189
2%
190-214
1%
215-239
1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 65-89 tweets from Elon Musk over March 21-23, 2026 (31.5% implied probability), reflecting his historical weekend cadence of 20-30 posts daily amid X's algorithm tweaks boosting visibility. Close behind at 23% for 90-114, this rivalry hinges on potential viral spikes from Tesla unveilings, SpaceX milestones, or meme-fueled culture wars, as seen in his 2024 averages exceeding 40 tweets/day during controversies. Lower ranges like 40-64 (19.5%) account for rare lulls, but sub-40 odds (6.8%) dismiss his relentless engagement style; upcoming 2026 event calendars could tip dynamics toward higher bins if political or tech drama erupts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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