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icon for Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?
Politics·Shutdown

Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?

icon for Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?
Politics·Shutdown

Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?

1% chance
Polymarket
NEW
1% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress enacted a continuing resolution (H.R. 6500) in early September 2026 that extends federal funding at fiscal 2026 levels through December 11, averting any appropriations lapse on October 1. The Senate passed the measure 90-6 in August, the House cleared it 370-48 under suspension of the rules, and President Trump signed it into law shortly thereafter. This bipartisan stopgap reflects shared incentives to maintain agency operations ahead of the November midterms and mirrors patterns of using short-term extensions to defer full-year negotiations. Trader consensus at 99% on "No" aligns directly with the enacted legislation, leaving no procedural pathway for a lapse on the target date. Only unforeseen legal or administrative reversals could alter the outcome, though none appear plausible given the completed legislative process.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.

A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,393
End Date
Oct 2, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congress enacted a continuing resolution (H.R. 6500) in early September 2026 that extends federal funding at fiscal 2026 levels through December 11, averting any appropriations lapse on October 1. The Senate passed the measure 90-6 in August, the House cleared it 370-48 under suspension of the rules, and President Trump signed it into law shortly thereafter. This bipartisan stopgap reflects shared incentives to maintain agency operations ahead of the November midterms and mirrors patterns of using short-term extensions to defer full-year negotiations. Trader consensus at 99% on "No" aligns directly with the enacted legislation, leaving no procedural pathway for a lapse on the target date. Only unforeseen legal or administrative reversals could alter the outcome, though none appear plausible given the completed legislative process.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse.

A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if a partial or full United States federal government lapse in appropriations occurs on October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress and the President fail to enact legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse of any duration affecting any portion of the United States federal government will qualify, regardless of whether it results in any operational impact. A subsequent government shutdown is not necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including from Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 2, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 11:30 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 2% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 2¢, the market collectively assigns a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 5, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?" is 2% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Federal Appropriations Lapse on October 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.