A broad European heatwave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and advection of Saharan air is pushing Amsterdam temperatures well above the June average of roughly 20°C. Latest model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, shows 850 hPa temperatures supporting surface maxima near 31–33°C on June 25 under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow, with BBC forecasts specifically indicating a 32°C high. Minor differences in the exact timing of peak heating, boundary-layer mixing, and any residual cloud cover or slight wind shifts explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–34°C. Updated high-resolution runs and official KNMI guidance in the next 24–48 hours will refine the single-degree outcome ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on June 25?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on June 25?
29°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$114,266 Vol.
$114,266 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$114,266 Vol.
$114,266 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
28°C or below
$45,099 Vol.
No
29°C
$19,221 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$11,813 Vol.
No
31°C
$8,823 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,320 Vol.
No
33°C
$6,337 Vol.
No
34°C
$4,940 Vol.
No
35°C
$3,197 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,782 Vol.
No
37°C
$2,721 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$3,014 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A broad European heatwave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and advection of Saharan air is pushing Amsterdam temperatures well above the June average of roughly 20°C. Latest model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, shows 850 hPa temperatures supporting surface maxima near 31–33°C on June 25 under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow, with BBC forecasts specifically indicating a 32°C high. Minor differences in the exact timing of peak heating, boundary-layer mixing, and any residual cloud cover or slight wind shifts explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–34°C. Updated high-resolution runs and official KNMI guidance in the next 24–48 hours will refine the single-degree outcome ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 1:08 AM ET
Volume
$114,266End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 1:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A broad European heatwave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and advection of Saharan air is pushing Amsterdam temperatures well above the June average of roughly 20°C. Latest model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, shows 850 hPa temperatures supporting surface maxima near 31–33°C on June 25 under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow, with BBC forecasts specifically indicating a 32°C high. Minor differences in the exact timing of peak heating, boundary-layer mixing, and any residual cloud cover or slight wind shifts explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–34°C. Updated high-resolution runs and official KNMI guidance in the next 24–48 hours will refine the single-degree outcome ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$114,266End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 1:08 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
A broad European heatwave driven by a strong subtropical ridge and advection of Saharan air is pushing Amsterdam temperatures well above the June average of roughly 20°C. Latest model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, shows 850 hPa temperatures supporting surface maxima near 31–33°C on June 25 under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow, with BBC forecasts specifically indicating a 32°C high. Minor differences in the exact timing of peak heating, boundary-layer mixing, and any residual cloud cover or slight wind shifts explain the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 31–34°C. Updated high-resolution runs and official KNMI guidance in the next 24–48 hours will refine the single-degree outcome ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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