Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the South African Weather Service's (SAWS) latest forecast of a 17°C maximum for Cape Town on April 17, down sharply from today's 23°C high due to an approaching cold front bringing cloudy skies, possible showers, and stronger winds across the Western Cape. This shift from seasonal norms—where April averages hover around 22°C—explains the clustering of implied probabilities above 70% for 15–18°C outcomes. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread (e.g., ECMWF vs. GFS) on cloud cover persistence and afternoon heating potential, with lingering low clouds potentially capping peaks at 15–16°C or partial clearing allowing 17–18°C. A SAWS update or real-time observations could refine this before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on April 17?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on April 17?
15°C 28%
16°C 27%
17°C 25%
18°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
14°C or below
10%
15°C
21%
16°C
27%
17°C
25%
18°C
14%
19°C
3%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
15°C 28%
16°C 27%
17°C 25%
18°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 17, 2026
14°C or below
$605 Vol.
10%
15°C
$60 Vol.
21%
16°C
$150 Vol.
27%
17°C
$182 Vol.
25%
18°C
$169 Vol.
14%
19°C
$828 Vol.
3%
20°C
$921 Vol.
2%
21°C
$913 Vol.
1%
22°C
$869 Vol.
1%
23°C
$1,070 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$1,206 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the South African Weather Service's (SAWS) latest forecast of a 17°C maximum for Cape Town on April 17, down sharply from today's 23°C high due to an approaching cold front bringing cloudy skies, possible showers, and stronger winds across the Western Cape. This shift from seasonal norms—where April averages hover around 22°C—explains the clustering of implied probabilities above 70% for 15–18°C outcomes. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread (e.g., ECMWF vs. GFS) on cloud cover persistence and afternoon heating potential, with lingering low clouds potentially capping peaks at 15–16°C or partial clearing allowing 17–18°C. A SAWS update or real-time observations could refine this before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$6,829End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the South African Weather Service's (SAWS) latest forecast of a 17°C maximum for Cape Town on April 17, down sharply from today's 23°C high due to an approaching cold front bringing cloudy skies, possible showers, and stronger winds across the Western Cape. This shift from seasonal norms—where April averages hover around 22°C—explains the clustering of implied probabilities above 70% for 15–18°C outcomes. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread (e.g., ECMWF vs. GFS) on cloud cover persistence and afternoon heating potential, with lingering low clouds potentially capping peaks at 15–16°C or partial clearing allowing 17–18°C. A SAWS update or real-time observations could refine this before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,829End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Apr 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the South African Weather Service's (SAWS) latest forecast of a 17°C maximum for Cape Town on April 17, down sharply from today's 23°C high due to an approaching cold front bringing cloudy skies, possible showers, and stronger winds across the Western Cape. This shift from seasonal norms—where April averages hover around 22°C—explains the clustering of implied probabilities above 70% for 15–18°C outcomes. Differentiating factors include forecast model spread (e.g., ECMWF vs. GFS) on cloud cover persistence and afternoon heating potential, with lingering low clouds potentially capping peaks at 15–16°C or partial clearing allowing 17–18°C. A SAWS update or real-time observations could refine this before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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