Recent forecasts from models such as those referenced by the South African Weather Service and international sources indicate a daytime high near 15°C for Cape Town on July 1, aligning with the market's leading 38% implied probability for that exact outcome. In the Southern Hemisphere winter, the region's Mediterranean climate features cool, moist conditions driven by prevailing westerly winds and Atlantic cold fronts, with recent late-June systems reinforcing below-average temperatures. Climatological baselines place July highs around 15–17°C, and short-range guidance shows limited warming potential before the date, keeping 16°C and 17°C as secondary contenders while suppressing odds for extremes above 19°C. Updated model runs in the coming days will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on July 1?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 1?
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$58,577 Vol.
$58,577 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$58,577 Vol.
$58,577 Vol.
Jul 1, 2026
10°C or below
$3,797 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,799 Vol.
No
12°C
$4,340 Vol.
No
13°C
$11,408 Vol.
No
14°C
$4,510 Vol.
No
15°C
$13,063 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$8,945 Vol.
No
17°C
$4,183 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,201 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,050 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$2,280 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models such as those referenced by the South African Weather Service and international sources indicate a daytime high near 15°C for Cape Town on July 1, aligning with the market's leading 38% implied probability for that exact outcome. In the Southern Hemisphere winter, the region's Mediterranean climate features cool, moist conditions driven by prevailing westerly winds and Atlantic cold fronts, with recent late-June systems reinforcing below-average temperatures. Climatological baselines place July highs around 15–17°C, and short-range guidance shows limited warming potential before the date, keeping 16°C and 17°C as secondary contenders while suppressing odds for extremes above 19°C. Updated model runs in the coming days will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$58,577End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models such as those referenced by the South African Weather Service and international sources indicate a daytime high near 15°C for Cape Town on July 1, aligning with the market's leading 38% implied probability for that exact outcome. In the Southern Hemisphere winter, the region's Mediterranean climate features cool, moist conditions driven by prevailing westerly winds and Atlantic cold fronts, with recent late-June systems reinforcing below-average temperatures. Climatological baselines place July highs around 15–17°C, and short-range guidance shows limited warming potential before the date, keeping 16°C and 17°C as secondary contenders while suppressing odds for extremes above 19°C. Updated model runs in the coming days will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$58,577End Date
Jul 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from models such as those referenced by the South African Weather Service and international sources indicate a daytime high near 15°C for Cape Town on July 1, aligning with the market's leading 38% implied probability for that exact outcome. In the Southern Hemisphere winter, the region's Mediterranean climate features cool, moist conditions driven by prevailing westerly winds and Atlantic cold fronts, with recent late-June systems reinforcing below-average temperatures. Climatological baselines place July highs around 15–17°C, and short-range guidance shows limited warming potential before the date, keeping 16°C and 17°C as secondary contenders while suppressing odds for extremes above 19°C. Updated model runs in the coming days will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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