**Cooler-than-normal conditions driven by persistent high pressure over the Hudson Bay region are keeping Chicago temperatures below the 83°F June 25 climatological normal.** Official extended outlooks and recent model guidance point to a high near 75–78°F, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading in the 76–79°F bins. Key variables include the strength and position of the ridge, which favors northerly flow and limited mixing; potential afternoon cloud cover or weak frontal boundaries that could cap daytime maxima; and any timing shifts in steering patterns that might allow brief warming. With uncertainty remaining in 48-hour model runs from NOAA and NWS Chicago, traders are weighting the most likely mid- to upper-70s range while assigning lower probability to an 80°F+ spike or a sharper cool-down. Updated short-range forecasts and afternoon model cycles will provide the next resolution signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on June 25?
Highest temperature in Chicago on June 25?
78-79°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$66,589 Vol.
$66,589 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
71°F or below
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
Yes
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90°F or higher
No
78-79°F 100.0%
71°F or below <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$66,589 Vol.
$66,589 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
71°F or below
$17,111 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$4,988 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$3,711 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$4,222 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$8,988 Vol.
Yes
80-81°F
$5,013 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$3,923 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$3,130 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$7,946 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$7,163 Vol.
No
90°F or higher
$394 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cooler-than-normal conditions driven by persistent high pressure over the Hudson Bay region are keeping Chicago temperatures below the 83°F June 25 climatological normal.** Official extended outlooks and recent model guidance point to a high near 75–78°F, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading in the 76–79°F bins. Key variables include the strength and position of the ridge, which favors northerly flow and limited mixing; potential afternoon cloud cover or weak frontal boundaries that could cap daytime maxima; and any timing shifts in steering patterns that might allow brief warming. With uncertainty remaining in 48-hour model runs from NOAA and NWS Chicago, traders are weighting the most likely mid- to upper-70s range while assigning lower probability to an 80°F+ spike or a sharper cool-down. Updated short-range forecasts and afternoon model cycles will provide the next resolution signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$66,589End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cooler-than-normal conditions driven by persistent high pressure over the Hudson Bay region are keeping Chicago temperatures below the 83°F June 25 climatological normal.** Official extended outlooks and recent model guidance point to a high near 75–78°F, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading in the 76–79°F bins. Key variables include the strength and position of the ridge, which favors northerly flow and limited mixing; potential afternoon cloud cover or weak frontal boundaries that could cap daytime maxima; and any timing shifts in steering patterns that might allow brief warming. With uncertainty remaining in 48-hour model runs from NOAA and NWS Chicago, traders are weighting the most likely mid- to upper-70s range while assigning lower probability to an 80°F+ spike or a sharper cool-down. Updated short-range forecasts and afternoon model cycles will provide the next resolution signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$66,589End Date
Jun 25, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Cooler-than-normal conditions driven by persistent high pressure over the Hudson Bay region are keeping Chicago temperatures below the 83°F June 25 climatological normal.** Official extended outlooks and recent model guidance point to a high near 75–78°F, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading in the 76–79°F bins. Key variables include the strength and position of the ridge, which favors northerly flow and limited mixing; potential afternoon cloud cover or weak frontal boundaries that could cap daytime maxima; and any timing shifts in steering patterns that might allow brief warming. With uncertainty remaining in 48-hour model runs from NOAA and NWS Chicago, traders are weighting the most likely mid- to upper-70s range while assigning lower probability to an 80°F+ spike or a sharper cool-down. Updated short-range forecasts and afternoon model cycles will provide the next resolution signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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