Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting Denver's April 4 high temperature around 58-62°F, driving 45.5% implied probability for 62°F or higher as the slight leader, with 60-61°F (26%) and 58-59°F (24%) close behind amid spring pattern shift. Recent developments include a cooling trend from record-hot March 2026, with an upper-level trough and surface low introducing moisture and cloud cover following a forecast 55°F high on April 3, tempering highs near the historical April 4 average of 58°F at Denver's mile-high elevation. Model ensembles show spread due to inherent forecast uncertainty in frontal timing and diurnal heating; watch for afternoon NWS updates and evening model runs that could refine probabilities before resolution at Denver International Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Denver on April 4?
Highest temperature in Denver on April 4?
62°F or higher 43%
60-61°F 27%
58-59°F 25%
56-57°F 5.1%
$14,048 Vol.
$14,048 Vol.
43°F or below
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
27%
62°F or higher
43%
62°F or higher 43%
60-61°F 27%
58-59°F 25%
56-57°F 5.1%
$14,048 Vol.
$14,048 Vol.
43°F or below
<1%
44-45°F
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
<1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
5%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
27%
62°F or higher
43%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKFResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Buckley Space Force Base Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKFResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects National Weather Service guidance and GFS/ECMWF ensemble means projecting Denver's April 4 high temperature around 58-62°F, driving 45.5% implied probability for 62°F or higher as the slight leader, with 60-61°F (26%) and 58-59°F (24%) close behind amid spring pattern shift. Recent developments include a cooling trend from record-hot March 2026, with an upper-level trough and surface low introducing moisture and cloud cover following a forecast 55°F high on April 3, tempering highs near the historical April 4 average of 58°F at Denver's mile-high elevation. Model ensembles show spread due to inherent forecast uncertainty in frontal timing and diurnal heating; watch for afternoon NWS updates and evening model runs that could refine probabilities before resolution at Denver International Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions