Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous implied probability (100%) for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching 17°C or higher on April 3, backed by strong alignment across major forecast models including ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance showing peak afternoon highs of 17–19°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), the NOAA-monitored resolution station. This positioning stems from a high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean driving mild southerly winds and ample solar insolation after morning clouds dissipate, with current surface observations already climbing to 13–15°C midday amid low wind shear. Historical early-April climatology supports averages near 16°C, but today's warmer-than-normal advection elevates confidence. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or isolated showers reducing heating, though model ensembles show minimal spread; hourly METAR updates through late afternoon will finalize the peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 3?
$40,624 Vol.
$40,624 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
100%
$40,624 Vol.
$40,624 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
16°C
$4,353 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$5,568 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous implied probability (100%) for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching 17°C or higher on April 3, backed by strong alignment across major forecast models including ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance showing peak afternoon highs of 17–19°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), the NOAA-monitored resolution station. This positioning stems from a high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean driving mild southerly winds and ample solar insolation after morning clouds dissipate, with current surface observations already climbing to 13–15°C midday amid low wind shear. Historical early-April climatology supports averages near 16°C, but today's warmer-than-normal advection elevates confidence. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or isolated showers reducing heating, though model ensembles show minimal spread; hourly METAR updates through late afternoon will finalize the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$40,624End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous implied probability (100%) for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching 17°C or higher on April 3, backed by strong alignment across major forecast models including ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance showing peak afternoon highs of 17–19°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), the NOAA-monitored resolution station. This positioning stems from a high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean driving mild southerly winds and ample solar insolation after morning clouds dissipate, with current surface observations already climbing to 13–15°C midday amid low wind shear. Historical early-April climatology supports averages near 16°C, but today's warmer-than-normal advection elevates confidence. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or isolated showers reducing heating, though model ensembles show minimal spread; hourly METAR updates through late afternoon will finalize the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$40,624End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous implied probability (100%) for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching 17°C or higher on April 3, backed by strong alignment across major forecast models including ECMWF, GFS, and Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance showing peak afternoon highs of 17–19°C at Istanbul Airport (LTFM), the NOAA-monitored resolution station. This positioning stems from a high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean driving mild southerly winds and ample solar insolation after morning clouds dissipate, with current surface observations already climbing to 13–15°C midday amid low wind shear. Historical early-April climatology supports averages near 16°C, but today's warmer-than-normal advection elevates confidence. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or isolated showers reducing heating, though model ensembles show minimal spread; hourly METAR updates through late afternoon will finalize the peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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