Current AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate a maximum of 36–37°C in Madrid on June 19 under persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow, positioning these outcomes as the market leaders with combined implied probability above 80%. Clear skies and light winds favor strong daytime heating, while climatological baselines for mid-June (average highs near 30–32°C) show this event running several degrees above normal. Minor model spread around peak values, plus slight uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects, keeps 35°C and 38°C as secondary possibilities. Updated guidance expected overnight from AEMET and ECMWF runs will refine the precise maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on June 19?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 19?
36°C 100.0%
33°C or below <1%
34°C <1%
35°C <1%
$98,361 Vol.
$98,361 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
33°C or below
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
Yes
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C or higher
No
36°C 100.0%
33°C or below <1%
34°C <1%
35°C <1%
$98,361 Vol.
$98,361 Vol.
Jun 19, 2026
33°C or below
$3,557 Vol.
No
34°C
$11,151 Vol.
No
35°C
$17,412 Vol.
No
36°C
$23,954 Vol.
Yes
37°C
$19,890 Vol.
No
38°C
$16,121 Vol.
No
39°C
$4,489 Vol.
No
40°C
$1,180 Vol.
No
41°C
$150 Vol.
No
42°C
$150 Vol.
No
43°C or higher
$306 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate a maximum of 36–37°C in Madrid on June 19 under persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow, positioning these outcomes as the market leaders with combined implied probability above 80%. Clear skies and light winds favor strong daytime heating, while climatological baselines for mid-June (average highs near 30–32°C) show this event running several degrees above normal. Minor model spread around peak values, plus slight uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects, keeps 35°C and 38°C as secondary possibilities. Updated guidance expected overnight from AEMET and ECMWF runs will refine the precise maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 3:17 AM ET
Volume
$98,361End Date
Jun 19, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 3:17 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate a maximum of 36–37°C in Madrid on June 19 under persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow, positioning these outcomes as the market leaders with combined implied probability above 80%. Clear skies and light winds favor strong daytime heating, while climatological baselines for mid-June (average highs near 30–32°C) show this event running several degrees above normal. Minor model spread around peak values, plus slight uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects, keeps 35°C and 38°C as secondary possibilities. Updated guidance expected overnight from AEMET and ECMWF runs will refine the precise maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$98,361End Date
Jun 19, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 3:17 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Current AEMET and ensemble forecasts indicate a maximum of 36–37°C in Madrid on June 19 under persistent high pressure and warm southerly flow, positioning these outcomes as the market leaders with combined implied probability above 80%. Clear skies and light winds favor strong daytime heating, while climatological baselines for mid-June (average highs near 30–32°C) show this event running several degrees above normal. Minor model spread around peak values, plus slight uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and urban heat-island effects, keeps 35°C and 38°C as secondary possibilities. Updated guidance expected overnight from AEMET and ECMWF runs will refine the precise maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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