Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a Moscow high temperature of 9–11°C on April 12, with 10°C leading at 43.5% implied probability closely trailed by 11°C at 34.0% and 9°C at 18.0%. This tight clustering stems from ±1–2°C spreads in model outputs, driven by uncertainty in afternoon boundary layer mixing and patchy cloud cover under a building high-pressure ridge following recent cold anomalies (e.g., 4°C peak on April 10). Mid-April climatological averages hover at 10–12°C per Roshydromet data, with southerly flows aiding modest warming. Hourly observations from Moscow's VVC station through late afternoon will clarify the peak, as shortwave timing could tip outcomes by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on April 12?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 12?
10°C 42%
11°C 41%
9°C 13%
12°C 3.0%
$21,672 Vol.
$21,672 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
3%
9°C
13%
10°C
42%
11°C
41%
12°C
3%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
10°C 42%
11°C 41%
9°C 13%
12°C 3.0%
$21,672 Vol.
$21,672 Vol.
Apr 12, 2026
7°C or below
$2,589 Vol.
1%
8°C
$2,586 Vol.
3%
9°C
$2,082 Vol.
13%
10°C
$1,694 Vol.
42%
11°C
$2,097 Vol.
41%
12°C
$1,102 Vol.
3%
13°C
$1,584 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,961 Vol.
1%
15°C
$1,875 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,300 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$1,839 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a Moscow high temperature of 9–11°C on April 12, with 10°C leading at 43.5% implied probability closely trailed by 11°C at 34.0% and 9°C at 18.0%. This tight clustering stems from ±1–2°C spreads in model outputs, driven by uncertainty in afternoon boundary layer mixing and patchy cloud cover under a building high-pressure ridge following recent cold anomalies (e.g., 4°C peak on April 10). Mid-April climatological averages hover at 10–12°C per Roshydromet data, with southerly flows aiding modest warming. Hourly observations from Moscow's VVC station through late afternoon will clarify the peak, as shortwave timing could tip outcomes by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Volume
$21,672End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a Moscow high temperature of 9–11°C on April 12, with 10°C leading at 43.5% implied probability closely trailed by 11°C at 34.0% and 9°C at 18.0%. This tight clustering stems from ±1–2°C spreads in model outputs, driven by uncertainty in afternoon boundary layer mixing and patchy cloud cover under a building high-pressure ridge following recent cold anomalies (e.g., 4°C peak on April 10). Mid-April climatological averages hover at 10–12°C per Roshydromet data, with southerly flows aiding modest warming. Hourly observations from Moscow's VVC station through late afternoon will clarify the peak, as shortwave timing could tip outcomes by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,672End Date
Apr 12, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 12:20 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS, which converge on a Moscow high temperature of 9–11°C on April 12, with 10°C leading at 43.5% implied probability closely trailed by 11°C at 34.0% and 9°C at 18.0%. This tight clustering stems from ±1–2°C spreads in model outputs, driven by uncertainty in afternoon boundary layer mixing and patchy cloud cover under a building high-pressure ridge following recent cold anomalies (e.g., 4°C peak on April 10). Mid-April climatological averages hover at 10–12°C per Roshydromet data, with southerly flows aiding modest warming. Hourly observations from Moscow's VVC station through late afternoon will clarify the peak, as shortwave timing could tip outcomes by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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